Climate Emergency and Renewable Opportunities

Martha Molfetas

The world just experienced twelve months at or above 1.5°C. Fossil fuels remain the dominant energy generation source, and are responsible for 75% of all emissions. It's never been more important to focus efforts on a renewable energy future.

An outspoken voice on sustainability, Dr. Roberta Boscolo from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) unpacks climate science while providing important insights on both what a climate-changedfuture will look like and what a renewable economic transformation could bring. Dr. Boscolo has spent her 20+ year career translating science and working closely on the water-food-energy nexus.

What climate reality is projected for the future?

Today the world is at 1.5°C; because of the El Niño push. We are not prepared for this, people die from heat strokes and heatwaves. Every degree increase leads to more frequent and increased storms. Sea level rise is changing coastlines. Some properties are uninsurable. We know the costs, we know the cause, and we know it's in our power to stop. Renewables are an option that can phase out fossil fuels.

The WMO should issue better warnings that include safety measures for people. Current climate futures and risk mapping is based on the past, but what happened in the past will not be representative of the future. AI tools take far less time and computer power to do predictive models. It could be invaluable for developing nations.

What does a decarbonized economy look like?

EVs, electrified transport and heating are important steps to decarbonize the economy. Batteries are more affordable. We already destroyed the world with oil and gas mining. Critical resource mining is less invasive than oil. We're not burning them, we can re-use them again and again. There will be a moment when we don't need to mine anymore, we recycle.

We need to think about big solutions. We will use less energy in renewable systems than we use now due to efficiency and localisation of power networks. Climate change is an opportunity to create new jobs and invest in new technologies. Let's take this opportunity to innovate and be more sustainable. This is also a big opportunity for developing countries, who can form regional energy hubs to expand access. Instead of an oil economy with one nation gaining wealth, wealth will be expansive to all.

How much more do emissions need to drop to stay under 1.5°C? Is a 1.5°C world still possible?

We hope so. At this point it's going to be an overshoot, over 1.5°C. We can still get back to 1.5°C over time. It will be much more difficult now than ten years ago. We are losing time, we are losing our window of opportunity. We should drop at least 50% of emissions by 2030, and continue to net zero. Net zero means everything we emit is absorbed by nature.

When China and India are able to stop and peak emissions, we will see something in the overall concentration of greenhouse gasses. Right now, renewables are covering new energy demand, but not replacing fossil fuels.

What are the types of technology transfers needed for the energy transition?

Most important: skilled workforcesthat can support the energy transition across developing and developed countries. Technology is cheap and Chinais dominating the market. Developing countries can initially start with renewables from China, build their own economies, and then start to export energy. A faster track to transition is to provide the tools and goods needed to leapfrog to renewables. A lot of finance doesn't go to developing countries for renewables due to investment risks. Building policy frameworks and financial resources that can support this will be vital. Elections matter, climate is a problem of leadership.

What are the climate-energy-nexus gaps and opportunities?

First is the issue of aerosols. They create a shield and cool the atmosphere, reflecting solar radiation while harming our health. The concentration of aerosols is getting lower in the atmosphere, helping our health but increasing warming. Second, immediately reduce methane emissions, these are 28-times more harmful than CO2 emissions. Third, tipping points; we are looking at the system in increments, but there could be elements changing completely. If Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets melt, it would increase sea level rise by ten or more meters in months. The role of the Amazon in capturing CO2 is changing. These tipping points are not well represented in WMO models, but these are big risks we need to address.

Roberta Boscolo is leading the Climate and Energy operations at the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva, Switzerland. Her main work is to enhance the capacity of all countries to contrast climate change and enact sustainable development through scaling up science-based climate adaptation and mitigation measures in alignment with the global landmark agreements.

You can follow her on Twitter/X.