U.S. Farm Income to Fall

The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) forecasts U.S. farm income will fall in 2024 by $6.5 billion or 4% to $140 billion. In inflation adjusted dollars, the decline is expected to be $10.2 billion, or 6%. If realized, net farm income in inflation-adjusted dollars this year would be 15% above the 20-year average of $121.5 billion but 28% below the record high in 2022. Crop receipts are expected to decrease by 10% led by lower receipts for corn and soybeans. In contrast, total animal/animal product receipts are expected to increase 7%. Expenses are forecast to decline 4%.

The weak farm income conditions were reflected in the latest Purdue University/CME Exchange Ag Economy Barometer. The index dipped to a reading of 100 in August, matching the average reading from late 2015 and early 2016 when the monthly barometer began. According to economists at Purdue University, that period marked the early stage of a multi-year downturn in the U.S. ag sector. The latest barometer reading shows many farmers are concerned the present downturn could be long lasting as well.