On the Road to COP29 & Beyond

Martha Molfetas

How major climate agreements are formed and decided can seem opaque or overly technical. Past Conferences of the Parties, or COPs, were largely quiet gatherings, of late they are becoming forums of political intrigue and lobbying influence.

As the road to Baku and COP29 comes into view, climate change activist Camilla Born shares some insight on what to expect. Camilla has spent her career working within climate diplomacy forums for civil society organizations, like SIPRI and E3G. She also worked with the UK government to rally for COP26 in Glasgow, where she wrote the guiding strategy.

What should people know about COPs that maybe they don't know?

There's an illusion that COPs are a UN body making decisions. But it's a group of 197 nations working together to create climate policy, and decide a path forward.

COPs remain where the world takes a temperature check on the climate policy appetite. Because it becomes a global meeting place for diverse actors, it will be increasingly important considering this year of global elections.

How important is COP29 and what will it focus on?

Very. COP29 will focus on the $100 billion commitment set in Copenhagen in 2009; that's financing from the Global North to the Global South. In 2009 we weren't thinking about the transition, but now we need to think about how to facilitate a low carbon and resilient transition. The New Collective Quantified Goal-referred to as NCQG-will center finance, there will be a number but it will be within a broader framework. By early 2025, nations will come out with their second round of nationally determined commitments, or NDCs. These are emissions and transition commitments, with the goal to 2035.

COP29 will be a political bargain between countries on how to transition the global economy, build confidence that finance is happening, and about the transition away from fossil fuels set in Dubai. Countries want to see a balanced package. A balanced amount of mitigation, adaptation, and finance so countries can get what they need out of the process.

Organizing a COP is involved, will the shorter timeline help or hinder COP29?

Compared to some others, it's not necessarily shorter. But not at a moment when so much is at stake. There is an increased role for COP Presidents to shepherd the process, it puts more pressure on parties to create space and facilitate the agenda. It's tricky for Azerbaijan, because there isn't a large history of leadership at COPs or other geopolitical forums. It will be a steep learning curve. They've got a troika with the UAE and Brazil to help the process. It remains unclear how they will use it.

What needs to happen from now to November to make COP29 successful?

Internally, donor countries need to work on their financing to figure out limits. The split is 90:10 for developing developed countries. Developed countries have a voluntary finance mandate, and need to get countries, like South Korea, to increase finance.

Externally, it's about 197 parties and they each come with their own politics. British and French elections just happened, that will shift the deck. US elections could create a boost to the COP, because there's a sustained government with an appetite to move forward, or there could be a chilling effect with Trump. It will not be entirely clear what will happen. At the Marrakech COP in 2016, US elections were happening at the same time. It forced negotiators to move forward and table the US elections. A range of initiatives have been announced around COPs-resource commitments or other collaborations and finance.

Are there specific things that could happen at COP29 that would make COP30 in 2025 a success?

A perceived and real COP decision. If it's done in a structured way, it will be beneficial. A strong response and plan for a potentially disruptive US election will be necessary for the private sector, other governments, and components of how we transition away from fossils.

Camilla Born is a Senior Adviser to governments, international institutions, business, NGOs and philanthropies. She previously worked as COP26 President Alok Sharma's advisor and led on the development of the COP26 strategy, and later led the UK Cabinet Office's International Climate Finance team. She's worked at the UK Department on International Development on climate adaptation. Camilla has worked on climate diplomacy and security issues at E3G and the Stockholm Peace and Research Institute. Camilla is currently a member of the RAPID board which brokers large-scale infrastructure investment in the UK water sector.

You can follow her onTwitter/X.