Climate change intensifies and prolongs cyclones: International study

A study co-led by researchers at Rowan University in the US, NTU Singapore and the University of Pennsylvania, US, reveals that tropical cyclones in Southeast Asia are now forming closer to coastlines, intensifying more rapidly, and lingering longer over land.

These changes, driven by climate change, heighten risks for tens of millions in coastal areas, with cities like Hai Phong, Yangon, and Bangkok facing unprecedented threats from longer-lasting and more intense storms.

A tropical cyclone is a powerful, rotating storm that forms over warm ocean waters and brings strong winds and heavy rain. Tropical cyclones typically form in the tropical zone near the equator, characterised by warm ocean waters and consistent temperatures, providing the necessary heat and moisture for these cyclones to develop and intensify.

Based on the analysis of more than 64,000 modelled historic and future storms from the 19^th century through the end of the 21^st century, the study, published in the peer-reviewed Nature partner journal Climate and Atmospheric Science, highlights significant changes in tropical cyclone behaviours in Southeast Asia, such as increased formation near coastlines and slower movement over land, which could pose new risks to the region.

The study found that climate change alters tropical cyclones' paths in Southeast Asia. This research is the first to use data from various climate models to examine cyclones over the 19th, 20th, and 21st centuries.

The group of researchers explains that around the world, tropical cyclones are affected by warming ocean waters, and the warmer they get, the more energy storms can draw from them.

The study is part of NTU's S$50 million interdisciplinary climate research programme, the Climate Transformation Programme (CTP). Hosted by its Earth Observatory of Singapore and funded by Singapore's Ministry of Education, the CTP aims to investigate climate change, develop, inspire, and accelerate knowledge-based solutions, and educate future leaders to establish the stable climate and environment necessary for a resilient and sustainable Southeast Asia.