Amid a summer wave of COVID-19, a new WHO/Europe study confirms the lifesaving impact of vaccines

From the time of their introduction in December 2020 through to March 2023, COVID-19 vaccines reduced deaths due to the pandemic by at least 59%, saving more than 1.6 million lives in the WHO European Region.

These are among the findings of a new WHO/Europe study published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine. It reveals that today's known COVID-19 death toll in the Region, currently at 2.2 million, might have been as high as 4 million without the vaccines. Most of those saved were aged 60 or older, the group at highest risk of severe illness and death from SARS-CoV-2.

The study's author, Dr Margaux Meslé from WHO/Europe, said, "The results are clear: COVID-19 vaccination saves lives. Our findings remind us of the integral role played by vaccines to ensure people return to a semblance of their pre-pandemic lives across the Region, in work and leisure. Without the enormous vaccination effort, we would have seen many more livelihoods disrupted and families losing the most vulnerable among them."

The WHO/Europe study found that COVID-19 vaccination saved most lives during the period when the Omicron variant was dominant, from December 2021 to March 2023.

Countries that implemented early vaccination programmes covering large parts of the population - such as Belgium, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, the Kingdom of the Netherlands, Malta and the United Kingdom - saw the greatest benefit in terms of overall number of lives saved.

What is a summer wave?

The findings are highly relevant today, over 12 months after WHO, in May 2023, declared that COVID-19 was no longer a public health emergency of international concern.

Over the past few weeks, a number of countries in the Region have reported an uptick in the number of cases - a summer wave of COVID-19. This is a timely reminder that while COVID-19 is fading into distant memory for millions of people, the virus has not gone away.

In fact, the percentage of patients with respiratory illness who have SARS-CoV-2 in primary care has increased 5-fold in the last 8 weeks, and the percentage of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 has increased as well.

While the absolute number of cases is lower than the winter wave, which peaked in December 2023, COVID-19 infections in the Region this summer are still causing hospitalizations and deaths.

Getting an updated COVID-19 vaccine remains an extremely effective tool to reduce both hospitalizations and deaths in high-risk individuals, which includes people who are older or immune-compromised, those with multiple underlying medical conditions, pregnant women, and health personnel who may be easily exposed.

Additionally, getting an updated COVID-19 vaccine also reduces your chances of developing long COVID.

The increased number of reported cases this summer could be explained by holiday travel, mass gathering events such as major sporting tournaments and music festivals, and less competition from co-circulating respiratory illnesses such as influenza.

Unlike seasonal flu, COVID-19 circulates year-round. Until this pattern changes, the Region may well experience multiple waves of infection every year, straining health-care systems and increasing the chance of people becoming unwell, especially the most vulnerable.

How do I protect myself?

To reduce your chances of infection, particularly now when COVID-19 is circulating more, consider using masks in crowded indoor spaces. A disposable respirator mask such as an N95 provides the best protection. If you must interact with someone who has COVID-19, be it a family member or a caregiver, using a mask is especially important.

Washing your hands regularly continues to be an effective infection control measure against SARS-CoV-2 as well as many other viruses and bacteria.

Taking these kinds of precautions is especially important for vulnerable people who are at higher risk of severe outcomes if they get infected.

If you have common COVID-19 symptoms - such as acute appearance of fever, cough, fatigue or shortness of breath - you may have a COVID-19 infection. You should take a COVID-19 test if one is available to confirm whether you are infected and to understand the level of risk for yourself and those around you.

In addition, if you are at high risk for a severe outcome from COVID-19, you may be eligible to receive antiviral medications. These have been shown to meaningfully reduce the risk of hospitalization and death from COVID-19 in vulnerable people.

Importance of surveillance

Surveillance plays a key role in understanding disease patterns and trends, alongside monitoring for the unknown threat of a new variant. Having high-quality surveillance is imperative so that public health authorities can take fast and decisive action to protect populations from potentially more virulent strains of the disease.

Globally, JN.1 and its descendants, which include the so-called FLiRT variants KP.2 and KP.3, remain the most reported variants. Recently, KP.3 spawned its own descendant, KP.3.1.1, which is now the most common circulating variant in Europe, comprising nearly one quarter of sequenced viruses. It has been detected in several countries including France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom.

These belong to the same family - called a sublineage - of SARS-CoV-2, and while they are not believed to be more severe, they are more transmissible. As many countries within the Region do not submit data regularly, an absence of data on specific variants does not necessarily mean they are not present in additional countries.

Current vaccines are effective in preventing severe disease and death among people infected with new variants, and studies are ongoing to ascertain the duration of protection given by booster doses.

The future of COVID-19

Dr Meslé emphasized, "Although we are now out of the pandemic phase, SARS-CoV-2 continues to infect people and lead to hospitalizations and deaths in our Region; therefore, COVID-19 vaccination continues to be important for people who are at high risk of severe outcomes if they get infected."

She added, "We are continuing to monitor SARS-CoV-2 activity and its impact as well as that from influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)."

As peaks are experienced during the summer, it is impossible to predict how the virus will behave for the remainder of 2024. Multiple waves could be possible as countries in the Region have transitioned from crisis management to sustainable, integrated, longer-term disease management.

Dr Meslé concluded, "We urge high-risk individuals to remain alert and follow national COVID-19 vaccine recommendations, and Member States in WHO European Region to continue implementing COVID-19 vaccination, targeting the most vulnerable.

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