Amid missile attacks against Israel, political scientist and former US ambassador discuss international security approaches

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Amid missile attacks against Israel, political scientist and former US ambassador discuss international security approaches

EVANSTON, Ill. --- The ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine underscore the serious concerns voters will consider in November as they weigh the different approaches to foreign policy and international security as presented by Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Northwestern University experts in political science and international diplomacy share their points of view on the recent report by the Commission on the National Defense Strategy, and the current threats facing the U.S.

"The November election is consequential…Harris is in line with Biden policy. Trump is much harder to read." -- Political scientist William Reno

Quote from Professor Reno
"The Biden administration has prioritized what they identify as threats to national security associated with competition with China. The Obama administration's approach was to engage China in hopes that country would become more like the U.S. and support common interests such as orderly trade relations and progress on climate issues. The 2018 National Security Strategy signaled a major change in course. The Trump people were much more aggressive toward China, though that appeared to be more in terms of rhetoric than concrete policy. Jake Sullivan, head of Biden's National Security Council, has prioritized the China issue. I know from my work that the issue now is a major preoccupation in the defense establishment.

"As a political scientist, my perspective is that major geopolitical shifts usually are accompanied by considerable disruption. The collapse of the Soviet Union between 1989 and 2001 was the last major shift. That shift was remarkably peaceful, wars in the Soviet periphery and places like Yugoslavia notwithstanding. Ukraine in some respects is a war of post-Soviet disruption. Many political scientists are much more concerned about the impacts of China's rise and U.S. responses. Rising powers usually want to renegotiate global order. The current U.S. policy is to prevent that renegotiation. The November election is consequential in this regard. Harris is in line with Biden policy. Trump is much harder to read. He says he is an isolationist, meaning he'd be less likely to contest the advance of China's global power. That may tempt China to test whether Trump is a man of his word. But he makes aggressive statements about China "stealing jobs" and such. My guess is he's hard to read in Beijing. That's not ideal, as it increases probabilities of miscalculation, which is not a good thing among heavily armed nuclear powers."

Renois a professor of political science and chair of the department, with a joint appointment in the program of African studies at Northwestern. His current research focuses on the politics of foreign assistance and patronage-based regimes and surveillance technologies. He has conducted research on the politics of violence and state collapse in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. He has almost 30 years of field work experience conducting research and interviews in conflict zones and has published articles on warfare in dozens of journals. In 2018-2019 he was a non-resident Fellow at the Modern War Institute of the U.S. Military Academy (West Point). He can be reached by contacting Stephanie Kulke at [email protected].

"The next U.S. President will have a choice: either work with allies to push back aggression …or apply pressure on Ukraine and Israel to freeze their conflicts in a cease-fire." -- Ian Kelly, Ambassador (retired) in Residence at Northwestern University

Quote from Ambassador in Residence Kelly
"Revisionist powers like Russia and Iran are challenging the U.S.-led security order around the world. Conflict zones in Europe and the Middle East threaten to explode into a broader, perhaps even global war. These revisionist powers have calculated that the U.S. does not have the political will, or the staying power, to confront and defeat them. The next U.S. President will have a choice: either work with allies to develop a strategy to push back aggression against democratic states or apply pressure on Ukraine and Israel to freeze their conflicts in a cease-fire. Either way, the new president faces difficult decisions."

Kellywas the U.S. Ambassador to Georgia between 2015 - 2018. He previously served as the U.S. Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) from 2010 - 2013. Prior to that, he held a variety of high-level roles at the U.S. State Department, including serving as the Department spokesperson under Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and as director of the Office of Russian Affairs. He can be reached by contacting Stephanie Kulke at [email protected].