Japan’s Lower House Election: An Aura of Unpredictability

Critical Questions by Nicholas SzechenyiandYuko Nakano

Published October 28, 2024

Japan held a general election for the lower house of the National Diet (Japan's parliament) on October 27, following Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru's decision to call for a snap election shortly after his victory in the contested leadership race of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) last month. The LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito lost their majority, which will likely increase pressure on Ishiba from both his detractors in the LDP and political opposition. A failure to rebound from this disappointing performance could usher in a new period of political instability and test Japan's capacity to manage a range of policy challenges.

Q1: What happened in the lower house election?

A1: The LDP won 191 out of 465 seats in the lower house of the Diet but lost 56 seats it previously had held, failing to secure a majority for the first time since 2009. The junior partner in the ruling coalition, the Komeito, also suffered setbacks, losing 8 seats including that of the recently appointed party leader-leaving it with 24. For years, the LDP has relied on Komeito's extensive grassroots organization to boost voter turnout and secure comfortable margins in both chambers of the Diet. This loss was a damaging blow to the confidence of the ruling coalition, which will try to regroup and defend its majority in an upper house election scheduled for next summer.

In contrast, the political opposition in Japan gained some momentum. The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), gained 50 seats, increasing its total to 148. The Democratic Party for the People, a relatively small, centrist party, quadrupled its total to 28 seats, while the Japan Innovation Party, a conservative party based in Osaka, lost 6 seats, and now holds 33. One exit poll indicated that nearly 20 percent of traditional LDP supporters cast their votes for opposition parties. Despite the LDP's considerable losses, the opposition parties saw mixed results, suggesting that the election was less a vote of confidence in the opposition and more a reflection of public discontent with the ruling party.

The LDP selected Ishiba as party leader mainly to capitalize on his popularity, as he had consistently ranked near the top in opinion polls leading up to the LDP leadership election last month. Ishiba called a snap election quickly under the assumption that he would gain public support during a "honeymoon period" for his new government. However, he got off to a slow start, and his approval rating languished in the 40 percent range shortly before the lower house election. The LDP's weak performance in the election can be attributed to a mix of poor decisionmaking and Ishiba's inconsistent stances on key issues. The public had become increasingly frustrated by a political fundraising scandal that embarrassed the LDP, and dissatisfaction with the party's response was a central theme in the election. Debates over whether to endorse lawmakers implicated in the scandal highlighted divisions within the party, but the LDP ultimately decided not to endorse several candidates. Ishiba repeatedly apologized on behalf of the party and pledged reform, but that message rang hollow when reports surfaced just days before the election indicating that the LDP sent funds to local party chapters represented by politicians who were denied endorsements from the LDP. Ishiba also flip-flopped on multiple issues including monetary policy-he first criticized the monetary easing policy of recent years but subsequently opposed further interest rate hikes-which arguably further undermined voter confidence and led to the party's underperformance in the election.

Q2: What happens next?

A2: Prime Minister Ishiba held a press conference today and emphasized that "national politics cannot stagnate for even one moment," signaling his intent to remain in office. The immediate priority is to reconvene a special session in the Diet to appoint a prime minister, which must take place within 30 days and requires a Lower House majority. With the ruling coalition 18 seats short of the 233-vote threshold and the CDP led by former prime minister Noda Yoshihiko seemingly eager to pounce, Ishiba's leadership skills will be put to the test.

Negotiations will unfold quickly across multiple fronts. While coalition building remains a possibility, Ishiba indicated that the LDP will not pursue that option for now. Instead, he will likely seek case-by-case cooperation with select opposition parties and independents on key legislation related to economic policy. The LDP is also considering reintegrating lawmakers who ran as independents after losing their party endorsements, though that could backfire given public anger over the fundraising scandal. For now, forming a formal coalition with any party other than Komeito remains unlikely, but nothing should be ruled out in this fluid environment.

Q3: Can Ishiba turn this around?

A3: To regain public trust and stabilize his leadership, Ishiba will not only have to seek cooperation with opposition parties but also fend off internal pressure within the LDP. A key measure of his success will be his ability to establish a policy agenda and build support before the upper house election set to take place by July 2025.

Various exit polls show that the economy, employment, and wage growth were key voter priorities, placing economic policy atop the legislative agenda in the near term. During the campaign, Ishiba announced plans for a substantial spending package, financed by a supplementary budget exceeding last year's 13 trillion yen ($87.6 billion). The new package will feature financial assistance to low-income households and subsidies to local governments. Passing the budget without a ruling majority will necessitate strategic negotiations with opposition parties, but Ishiba will also need to balance the differing opinions within his party. This is but one example of the complex negotiations that could unfold on a range of policy priorities. If Ishiba cannot stabilize his leadership in the coming months, he may face pressure to step down, potentially leading to a power struggle within the LDP and political instability more broadly.

Q4: Should Washington be worried?

A4: After years of political stability, Japan now appears to be entering a period of uncertainty amid a power struggle within the LDP and renewed momentum for the opposition. In the near term, debates over budgets and tax policy could place a spotlight on plans to dramatically increase defense spending, a strategy generally supported by the public but potentially contentious as legislators determine how best to resource this ambitious initiative. During the election campaign, proposals to revise the Status of Forces Agreement governing the U.S. military presence in Japan resurfaced, a nonstarter for Washington but an issue that could resonate in a domestic political context. Nonetheless, the pillars of Japan's national security strategy-strengthening its own defense capabilities, the U.S.-Japan alliance, and partnerships with like-minded nations-continue to enjoy broad support across the political spectrum. The election outcome will not precipitate a sudden shift in Japan's strategic trajectory, but political instability could affect the speed at which Japan drives forward key initiatives such as the defense buildup and its evolving role as a global partner of the United States. Japan's election was about political reform, but that should not apply to foreign policy. Clear and consistent messaging about a sustained commitment to implementing common strategic objectives under the U.S.-Japan alliance will prove critical as the United States prepares for its own political transition.

Nicholas Szechenyi is vice president of the geopolitics and foreign policy department and senior fellow with the Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Yuko Nakano is a fellow with the Japan Chair and associate director of the U.S.-Japan Strategic Leadership Program at CSIS.

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