Capital Update – for the Week Ending November 8, 2024

Republicans take control of White House, Congress | NPPC claims victory as local initiatives fail to ban food and agriculture businesses | H5N1 in backyard pigs quickly controlled as plans are bolstered to stop spread | U.S. pork exports up in September, remain on record pace for 2024

Republicans Take Control of White House, Congress

What happened: In addition to Donald Trump's return to the White House, Tuesday's elections saw Republicans gain control of the U.S. Senate and will likely hold power in the House of Representatives, giving them leadership of committees important to agriculture.

At press time, the GOP had 53 seats in the Senate, while Democrats held 47. Arizona and Nevada have not yet been called.

Republicans ousted three incumbents, winning seats in Montana with Tim Sheehy defeating Sen. Jon Tester; Ohio, where businessman Bernie Moreno unseated Sen. Sherrod Brown; and Pennsylvania, with Dave McCormick beating Sen. Bob Casey.

In the House, Republicans currently have a 211-199 lead. Two dozen races are too close to call.

Why it matters: As done during the Biden presidency, NPPC will work with the new administration to champion policies that enable producers to operate their farms successfully and secure their livelihoods for future generations. Among those policies are fixing California Proposition 12, passing a new farm bill, promoting U.S. pork exports, and resolving agriculture's labor shortage.

In the Senate, John Boozman (R-AR) is expected to become chairman of the Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Committee. Currently serving as ranking member, Boozman would take over from retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI). The House Agriculture Committee again will likely be led by Chairman Glenn G.T. Thompson (R-PA).

NPPC Claims Victory as Local Initiatives Fail to Ban Food and Agriculture Businesses

What happened: Ballot measures pushed by anti-meat activists to prohibit meatpacking plants in Denver and ban so-called "factory farms" in Sonoma County, California, were defeated Tuesday - marking major victories for NPPC and several state pork associations.

Denver voters rejected Initiated Ordinance 309 with an overwhelming 64.7% of 'no' votes. The measure would have meant no packing or processing facilities could operate within the city limits beginning Jan. 1, 2026. It also would have banned the construction, maintenance, or use of them within the city.

Sonoma County's Measure J initiative, which saw a massive 85% of voters reject it, would have phased out concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) within three years.

NPPC's take: NPPC and seven state pork associations contributed to the campaign against the Denver initiative, which was a motivating factor for other agriculture and commodity groups to join the fight. NPPC also opposed the Sonoma County initiative.

Why it matters: The ban on meatpacking and processing facilities and CAFOs would have set a precedent for such prohibitions in other localities and would have had a negative impact on meat supplies at least in those two states.

"Americans across the country - in vast majorities - unequivocally declared that ballot measures that hurt producers are not tolerated," said NPPC CEO Bryan Humphreys. "These measures create a lose-lose situation - not only putting producers out of businesses but also increasing food prices for consumers."

H5N1 in Backyard Pigs Quickly Controlled; Plans Bolstered to Stop Spread

What happened: Last week, Avian Influenza (H5N1) was found on a small, multi-species backyard farm in Crook County, Oregon. The expected route of exposure was infected migratory wildfowl exposed domestic fowl on the property where pigs were also located.

This H5N1 strain is different and unrelated to the H5N1 genotype affecting dairy cattle.

The Oregon virus was quickly identified, and preventative measures were promptly implemented to control and prevent its spread.

NPPC's response: NPPC quickly coordinated with state and federal agencies, as well as other industry organizations - National Pork Board, state pork associations, Swine Health Information Center, and American Association of Swine Veterinarians - to gather and share accurate information. It also engaged stakeholders to reduce market reactions and activated its response plan by issuing a clear, authoritative media statement and conducting targeted news interviews to reinforce the facts and assure the public that pork is safe.

Why it matters: Pork producers have rigorous on-farm biosecurity programs in place and have worked alongside the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service since 2009 to carry out the swine influenza surveillance program to detect and identify influenza viruses circulating in swine and improve animal health diagnostics and vaccines. While the situation in Oregon was an isolated incident and quickly controlled, it reinforced the importance and effectiveness of having proactive and diligent biosecurity plans for any farm with animals.

U.S. Pork Exports Up in September, Remain on Record Pace for 2024

What happened: September exports of U.S. pork were higher year-over-year, according to data released this week by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) keeping them on pace to set new records for annual volume and value.

Pork exports for the month topped 238,000 metric tons (MT), up 8% from the same period in 2023, and value increased 6% to more than $685 million. For the January-September period, exports were 5% above last year's pace at 2.2 million MT, and value was up 7% to nearly $6.4 billion.

September pork exports to No. 1 market Mexico were 91,492 MT, up 3% from a year ago; value was down slightly to $206.6 million. For the year to date through September, exports to Mexico remained on a record pace, with volume rising 7% to 850,204 MT year-over-year and value up 12% at $1.89 billion. Exports to Mexico equated to almost $20 for each hog marketed, according to USMEF.

Exports to Central America continued their strong growth, with shipments to Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama increasing in September by 36% in volume to almost 13,000 MT over the same time in 2023 and 42% in value to nearly $42 million. The region is expected to take a record amount of pork this year.

The Philippines, Malaysia, and Singapore also had robust exports for the month, up 83% in volume and 82% in value. For the first nine months of 2024, exports increased 17% to 61,320 MT from a year ago, while value climbed 8% to $134.2 million. Additionally, export growth so far in 2024 compared with the same period in 2023 was strong for Australia, Colombia, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, New Zealand, and South Korea, among others.

While September exports to Japan were up 6% from September 2023, they remained slightly below in volume and value of 2023's first three quarters. Exports to China/Hong Kong were the largest in 15 months, up 11% in volume and value from a year ago; January-September exports well below last year.

Why it matters: September exports equated to an average of $65.11 in value for each hog marketed, up 6% from a year ago. The January-September average was $66.15, up 5% from the first nine months of 2023. Exports accounted for 29.6% of total September pork production, up 1.5 percentage points from last September. For January-September, exports were 30.2% of total production, up from 29.4% last year.

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