Council publishes 2029 Resource Adequacy Assessment study

Transmission lines near Ephrata, Wash.

The Council has published its 2029 Resource Adequacy Assessment. The Council's annual adequacy assessment is a five-year test of the power plan's resource strategy to ensure that it will provide an adequate future power supply. This report summarizes the aggregate regional power supply's adequacy for the 2029 operating year (October 2028 through September 2029). Council staff work closely with the advisory committees on developing and evaluating modeling assumptions, data, and results that culminate in measuring system adequacy risks - using the Council's multi-metric approach.

The study finds that the region must continue implementing the resource strategy outlined in the 2021 Power Plan. Achieving energy efficiency consistent with the high end of the Council's target, pursuing renewable deployment of around 6,600 MW by 2029, and ensuring sufficient balancing reserves and demand response are all necessary to maintaining an adequate power system. Areas of risk remain, however. The same strategy, but only pursuing the low end of the Council's energy efficiency target, would not provide for an adequate system. Further, if data center load growth accelerates and more closely aligns with utility projections in the region by 2029, the resource strategy will also be insufficient to maintain adequacy.

The assessment captures the rapid changes the grid is going to experience by 2029, including unprecedent load growth uncertainty, announced coal-to-gas conversions and anticipated transmission expansion in the region. The Council will continue tracking and planning for these risk factors in the development of the upcoming Power Plan and the eventual resource strategy to address the evolving needs of the region.

This graphic summarizes results from the Council's 2029 Resource Adequacy Assessment study.

After the analysis for the 2029 adequacy assessment was completed, an agreement in principle on the changes of the Columbia River Treaty was announced by the US and Canadian governments in July. This agreement still must be ratified by both nations. The Council will continue to evaluate the impact on power system planning and resource adequacy in future analyses.

During its August meeting, the Council listened to a presentation from the federal negotiating team on the Treaty's agreement in principle. Power Division Director Jennifer Light then led a discussion about the agreement's implications for the Council's upcoming power planning efforts, and what additional information will be needed to more fully evaluate the impact on the Northwest power system (watch video).

For more information about results from the 2029 Resource Adequacy Assessment, read the full presentation to the Council & watch the video.

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