Samba TV’S Political Advertising Report Unveils Deep Swing State Divide Among Presidential Candidate Campaigns

‍Both presidential campaigns are struggling to reach diverse audiences less than two months from Election Day

‍San Francisco - September 12, 2024 - Samba TV, the leading provider of TV technology for audience data and omniscreen measurement, today released itsElection 2024: Guide to Political Advertising Report, offering key trends and insights for a tightly contested presidential race. The report analyzes linear and streaming TV viewership data and over a billion TV ad impressions to reveal how the two presidential candidates are reaching Americans and who's being left behind.

Key among these findings is that despite entering the race late, Vice President Kamala Harris' ads have reached more U.S. households this year than former President Donald Trump's. Since beginning her ad campaign at the end of July, Harris ads have reached 44.4 million U.S. households at an average frequency of 15.7 ads per household. By comparison, during that time, Trump's ads have reached 31.4 million U.S. households at an average of 13.9. For all of 2024, Trump ads have reached 34.8 million U.S. households, meaning Harris has surpassed Trump by 28% year-to-date from an ad reach perspective. At the same time, 90% of Trump's ad reach occurred in the weeks since Harris joined the race.

"We've seen the spending of the two presidential campaigns really ramp up over the past month with an intense focus on swing states," said Samba TV Co-founder and CEO Ashwin Navin. "Surprisingly, however, we're seeing some crucial voting blocs under exposed, showing that media agencies working for the political campaigns have a real opportunity to leverage data for real-time targeting to reach the swing voters more effectively."

Samba TV's pivotal Election 2024: Guide to Political Advertising Reportoffers an in-depth analysis of the ad reach of both presidential candidates and debate viewership. It also includes a deep dive into ad reach and TV viewership across the seven swing states: AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, and WI.

Key insights include:

• Harris and Trump are both struggling to reach diverse audiences. Each of their ads over-index among white audiences and under-index among Hispanic and Asian households. Both candidates are under-indexing by a particularly wide margin among Hispanic households, with Harris under-indexing by 23% and Trump by 32% when compared to the rest of the U.S.
• Both candidates are blitzing swing states, with Harris's ads reaching an average of 65% of households across the seven states and Trump's ads reaching 62%. By comparison, Harris ads reached an average of 32% of households across the other 43 states, and Trump ads reached 19% of households.
• The swing states where Harris has reached the lowest percentage of households are North Carolina at 57% and Georgia at 61%.
• The swing states where Trump has reached the lowest percentage of households are Georgia at 59% and North Carolina at 62%.
• Households in Atlanta, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania over-indexed by a higher margin based on time spent watching FOX News than MSNBC.
• Households in Michigan and Wisconsin over-indexed by a higher margin based on time spent watching MSNBC than FOX News.
• With 28.3M U.S. households watching, the presidential debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 was the most watched TV event of 2024, following the Super Bowl.
• 28.3M U.S. households watched the presidential debate between Harris and Trump on September 10, marking a 12% increase from the 25.2M that watched the debate between Trump and Biden on June 27.
• Of the 28.3M U.S. households that watched the presidential debate between Harris and Trump, 53% only watched that debate and skipped the Trump / Biden debate (compared to 47% that watched both).
• Among the swing states, viewership trends across the Harris / Trump and Biden / Trump debates were similar. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin saw slight over-indexes in viewership compared to the U.S. as a whole (between 9%-11% each), while households in Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada were less likely than the average U.S. household to watch. Household viewership in Arizona was on par with the rest of the U.S.
• Households that watched the Harris / Trump debate but skipped the Biden / Trump debate shed light into the undecided voter, as they were not interested in tuning in when Biden was on the ballot but now have interest in following the race with the addition of Harris. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin over-indexed among this group, while Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona under-indexed. Nevada was similarly likely as the average U.S. household to be part of this group.
• Older households over-indexed on viewership of the Harris / Trump debate by the highest margin, compared to the rest of the U.S. The strongest over-indexes were among households with viewers between the ages of 65-74 (over-indexing by 11%) and 75+ (over-indexing by 17%), while millennial and Gen Z households under-indexed.

For more information on Samba TV's real-time political segments and to access the full Election 2024: Guide to Political Advertising Report, visit Samba TV.

About Samba TV

Samba TV has transformed the TV from a pane of glass on the wall to a window into the heart of audiences. We are the global leader in television technology powering real-time insights and audience targeting to enable unparalleled marketing efficiency and effectiveness. Our proprietary first-party data from tens of millions of opted-in televisions, across more than 20 TV brands sold in over one hundred countries, provides advertisers and media companies a unified view of the entire consumer journey. Our independent measurement has future-proofed advertising for the next generation, empowering advertisers to connect with their audiences on any platform, across every screen.