Mayo on the Brink of Extinction

Hellmann's mayonnaise, a product of Unilever, has an initiative called "Save Our Sandwich." The company fears sandwiches which use mayonnaise will be extinct by 2043. Hellmann's worries the bacon-lettuce-tomato sandwich might "rest in perfection"; the egg salad will be "an eggs-traordinary life that ended too soon"; and the turkey club will be "gone too soon from our stomachs, but never from our hearts." The culprit, "heavy rainfall, drought, and flooding on farms" caused by climate change which "could cause sandwich ingredients like mayo to cease to affordably exist by 2043."

How did Hellmann's decide 2043 would be the year of mayonnaise's demise? The company refers to research by researchers at the New York University (NYU), Center for Sustainable Business Analysis. For the analysis, NYU researchers assumed climate change would reduce soybean yields 26 percent based on a 2021 study published in Nature-Scientific Reports. The study found rising temperatures would cause a 26-57 percent loss in soybean yields by 2050. A price increase/yield decline ratio from 2003 (an elasticity in economic parlance) was then applied to the assumed yield reduction to estimate an increase in soybean prices. NYU researchers said soybean yields in 2003 declined 4.51 percent due to extreme weather and the price of soybeans increased 17.38 percent. The increase in soybean prices was then translated into an increase in soybean oil prices and the date for mayo's demise determined as the year when soybean oil would no longer be affordable.

Hellmann's and Unilever are not giving up mayonnaise without a fight. The company is "investing $30 million to help farmers in the U.S. and Canada switch to regenerative agriculture, so we can keep making the mayo that brings sandwiches together. Over the next five years, we're collaborating with over 1,000 soybean farmers to save our sandwiches and ensure a tastier future for all." Hellmann's says, "Adopting practices like cover cropping can keep the soil intact and support the growth of roots strong enough to say in the ground." And mayonnaise consumers can help, "we're inviting you to join our mission to ensure a sandwich-filled future by applying to symbolically adopt one of our four iconic, mayo-filled sandwiches. If chosen, we'll send you a limited-edition sandwich plushie along with a certificate of adoption."

One suspects mayonnaise's future is not as dire as Hellmann's suggests. Soybean yields, at least through last year, continue to climb in both Nebraska and the U.S. The extinction of mayonnaise by 2043 would require dramatic disruptions in yields over the next 19 years, something not experienced thus far. Hellman's initiative, while well intentioned, is another example of a company trying to market its "climate-friendly" credibility. Unfortunately, in so doing, it paints a dire and misleading picture for the future of agriculture too.