Hoover Institution

10/29/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 10/29/2024 05:36

Did Gun Control Ruin Hillary Clinton’s Best Shot at the Presidency

Political commentators agree that immigration was an important issue in the 2016 elections. But in a puzzling feature among the electorate, and contrary to expectations, Trump support was strongest in rural areas where few immigrants lived. Analysis of two surveys with different questions shows that alongside immigration, the issue of gun control was equally important to voter choice, providing a partial explanation of Trump's strength in immigrant-scarce rural areas.

Takeaways

  • In 2016 Donald Trump adopted a strongly anti-immigrant platform in both the primaries and the general election campaign.
  • After the election, some commentators noticed a puzzling feature among the electorate: support for Trump was strongest in rural areas with few immigrants.
  • A possible explanation is that in rural areas people have lots of guns. Although gun control was rarely mentioned in the 2016 campaign, surveys showed that it ranked highly alongside immigration as an important issue in the public's view.
  • Analysis of two surveys with different questions suggests that gun control was equally as important as immigration to voter choice in 2016.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD

Did Gun Control Ruin Hillary Clinton's Best Shot at the Presidency? by Hoover Institution

About the Author

Morris Fiorina is a professor of political science at Stanford University and a senior fellow of the Hoover Institution. He has written or edited fourteen books, most recently Who Governs? Emergency Powers in the Time of COVID. An elected member of the National Academy of Sciences, Fiorina has received career achievement awards from two sections of the American Political Science Association.

An Era of Unstable Majorities Continues

A continuation of the Hoover Institution's Unstable Majorities series from the 2016 election season, the first half of this essay series leads up to the November 2024 elections with general discussions of the past and present political situation, of particular interest to students and professionals in the fields of political science and political journalism. The second half continues post-election with analyses focused specifically on the 2024 elections, addressed to a wider audience. The series begins by looking back at the issues raised in 2016 that continue today.

Learn more