Instant Reaction: Jobs, September 6, 2024

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The net monthly job addition averaged 116,000 from 3 months to August. That is light. It even suggests the possibility of turning net negative in the upcoming months if the economy hits an unexpected speed bump. The softening job figures suggest that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in mid-September, again on the day after the election, and possibly four more times in 2025. The long-term bond and mortgage markets have already incorporated these upcoming changes. That is why the average mortgage rate is 6.3%, measurably lower than the 7% to 8% seen in the past 18 months. Mortgages with full government guarantees, like FHA and VA loans, are already below 6%.

Historically, outside of the Great Recession in 2008-2010, which was led by a housing market downfall, the weakening job market does not negatively affect home sales or prices if accompanied by falling interest rates. With the unemployment rate at 4.2% in August, over 90% are employed, and around 70% consider themselves to be in a secure job. Therefore, falling mortgage rates exert more power than a weakening job situation. Let's see if that holds again.

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