Garner: research shows tropical cyclones in Southeast Asia developing faster, moving slower, endangering coastal communities

Research published this month led by Rowan University's Andra Garner, Ph.D., shows faster developing, more severe tropical cyclones may endanger tens of millions of people in low-lying, coastal communities throughout Southeast Asia.

Garner, an assistant professor of environmental science in Rowan's School of Earth & Environment, produced the study with co-authors at Earth Observatory of Singapore at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) as well as the University of Pennsylvania.

Based on more than 64,000 modeled storms from the 19^th century through the end of the 21^st century, the paper, published in Nature partner journal (npj) Climate and Atmospheric Science, suggests a potentially perilous future in the region.

"Southeast Asia has coastlines that are very densely populated, currently home to more than 70 percent of the global population that's exposed to future sea level rise," Garner said. "When you're looking at that densely populated coastline, and it's a region that's affected by tropical cyclones, there's a real risk, especially when those storms become more damaging and populations continue to grow."

Around the world, tropical cyclones are affected by warming ocean waters, and the warmer they get the more energy storms can draw from them.

"Typhoons have caused torrential rains and severe flooding across Southeast Asia, prompting mass evacuations, destroying infrastructure and affecting the lives and livelihoods of thousands of people," said study co-author and director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore, Benjamin Horton. "Our study shows that as the typhoons travel across warmer oceans from climate change, they pull in more water vapor and heat. That means stronger wind, heavier rainfall and more flooding when the typhoons hit land."

"The work focuses on changes to tropical cyclone tracks around Southeast Asia in a warming climate, including changes to where storms form and end, as well as where they intensify most quickly and move most slowly," Garner said. "This is the first publication for the region to consider tropical cyclone simulations from multiple climate models for the 19^th, 20^th and 21^st centuries."

Study co-author Mackenzie Weaver at the University of Pennsylvania noted the importance of the long-term study.

"Conducting a long-term analysis allows for better understanding of both past and future changes to tropical cyclone tracks, which can inform coastal resilience strategies in both the near-term and more distant future," Weaver said.

Results from the research showed that the cities of Hai Phong (Vietnam), Yangon (Myanmar), and Bangkok (Thailand) can all expect to see increases in both tropical cyclone intensity and duration in the future. By studying modelled storms over a long period, the researchers aim to provide information that can help governments prepare not only for future storms but in planning community development.

Unlike studying actual, historic weather patterns and storms, computer modelled studies enable researchers to control various elements, including the projected rise in human-caused emissions and their effect on a warming planet, Garner said.

"The use of nine global climate models substantially reduces the uncertainty in predicting tropical cyclone changes, which is typically higher in past single-model studies", added co-author Dhrubajyoti Samanta from NTU.

Models considered two possible futures, one in which humanity does little to moderate heat-trapping emissions, and one in which humans try to reduce emissions to curb climate change.

The outcomes, Garner said, were "generally consistent across scenarios, though some impacts were less severe in a lower emission future. There were two takeaways: First, we should be acting to reduce emissions so we can curb the impacts of future storms. Second, we should be acting now to protect those coastlines for the future, which will likely see some worsened tropical cyclone impacts regardless of future emissions."

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