Kishida Steps Aside

Critical Questions by Christopher B. Johnstone, Nicholas Szechenyi, andYuko Nakano

Published August 16, 2024

In a move that stunned Japan's political world, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio announced on August 14 that he would not seek reelection as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in September-a decision that effectively ends his tenure as prime minister. Kishida will leave behind a legacy of historic change in Japan's defense and national security policies that won respect from the Biden administration. In a statement released that day, President Joe Biden praised Kishida's "courageous leadership" that "transformed Japan's role in the world." While Japan's next prime minister is likely to carry forward with most of Kishida's national security strategy, the LDP's weakness in the wake of a political funding scandal-introducing the prospect of a setback in the next national election-could necessitate attention to other issues that could slow the pace of some of his defense policy reforms.

Q1: Why did Kishida step down?

A1: Pressure on Kishida to step aside has been building for months. Approval rates for his government have languished below 30 percent since late 2023, weighed down by a political fundraising scandal that engulfed the LDP-though ironically left Kishida's faction itself largely unscathed. With the prime minister required to call a national election no later than October 2025, LDP members have been increasingly nervous at the prospect of facing the polls with Kishida as their standard bearer. Still, the absence of a clear and compelling alternative for leadership was Kishida's strongest asset, and as recently as last week, political watchers were speculating that Kishida was likely to win reelection in September and remain prime minister for the time being.

The decision to step down appears to be Kishida's own and not one forced upon him. In a press conference at the prime minister's office, Kishida emphasized the need for the LDP to show a "fresh face" to the Japanese public that reflects a robust debate on the issues of the day. Kishida touted his economic record and spoke at length about his national security and foreign policy accomplishments. But he also acknowledged that the LDP's scandals had "invited distrust" from the Japanese public, and that ultimately, he had to take responsibility. Japan needs a new leadership "dream team," one removed from factional politics and that reflects the will of the Japanese people, he said. Had he continued in office, Kishida almost certainly would have presided over significant losses by the LDP in a general election.

Q2: What is Kishida's legacy?

A2: Serving nearly three years in office, Kishida is the eighth-longest-serving prime minister since the end of World War II. Despite his unpopularity, he leaves an important legacy on national security and foreign policy. His government's national security and defense strategies, released in December 2022, were historic documents that set out groundbreaking changes in response to a rapidly deteriorating regional security environment. Kishida broke 50 years of precedent in deciding to increase defense spending to nearly 2 percent of GDP. His decision to acquire long-range precision strike weapons reversed policy in place since the 1950s, and he was a proponent of deeper, more integrated military cooperation with the United States.

On the foreign policy front, Kishida's strong and rapid support for Ukraine after the Russian invasion, and his famous mantra that "Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow," generated renewed emphasis on the global order and prompted other countries in Asia to join in the response. Kishida's leadership as host of the G7 summit in Hiroshima in 2023 was a model for shaping global governance norms and engaging the developing world. Perhaps most significantly, Kishida embraced the prospect of reinvigorated ties with South Korea under President Yoon Suk Yeol. Today, Japan-South Korea ties are stronger than at any time in a generation, with greater emphasis on shared interests and trilateral cooperation with the United States.

But Kishida's withdrawal from the LDP leadership race reflects the reality that his national security and foreign policy bona fides did not translate into popularity at home, where initiatives such as his economic strategy-what he called a "new form of capitalism," including labor market and other reforms-did not resonate with the public. Thus, he ultimately concluded that the party would benefit from new leadership to turn the tide.

Q3: Who is likely to succeed Kishida?

A3: The LDP is scheduled to release details about the leadership election next week, with a vote expected in late September. Candidates must secure endorsements from 20 of their colleagues in the National Diet (Japan's legislature) to enter the race, and it could be a crowded field. The winner will be decided by 367 sitting LDP lawmakers in the Diet and by 367 general party members. The leader in public opinion polls is former defense minister Ishiba Shigeru, who has run previously but did not secure enough support among fellow Diet members to prevail. Digital transformation minister Kono Taro, who was the runner-up to Kishida in the last leadership election in 2021, could also be in the mix. LDP secretary general Motegi Toshimitsu, a veteran lawmaker who has served in multiple cabinet posts, has been laying the groundwork for a run in recent months. Economic security minister Takaichi Sanae, a protégé of former prime minister Abe Shinzo, could also jump in, as could Kato Katsunobu, a former chief cabinet secretary and health minister. The field could also include Koizumi Shinjiro, a former environment minister whose father is a former prime minister, or Kobayashi Takayuki, a former economic security minister. Koizumi and Kobayashi are in their forties and could seek to amplify the voice of younger lawmakers. However, it is too early to tell whether the "fresh face" Kishida called for will be a veteran lawmaker or a member of the next generation. The outcome could hinge in large part on the endorsements of party heavyweights such as former prime ministers Aso Taro and Suga Yoshihide. In short, Kishida has seemingly invited a wide-open competition to seize control of and potentially rebrand the LDP.

Q4: Will Japan's foreign and defense policies change under a new leader?

A4: There is a mainstream consensus on Japan's strategic trajectory-bolstering its defense capabilities, strengthening the alliance with the United States, and assuming a leadership role on the global stage- first set out by Abe and given greater definition by Kishida. The defense buildup has broad political support, for example, though spending targets after 2027 could come under increased scrutiny when balanced against other priorities. The timelines for other national security priorities, such as encouraging defense exports and cybersecurity legislation, could also be delayed if crowded out by other issues. This political transition could introduce some uncertainty about the pace at which Japan's strategic vision is implemented, but the fundamental pillars will likely remain in place.

In the near term, however, Kishida's withdrawal could expose divisions in the LDP with implications for Japan's foreign relations. For instance, on August 15, the anniversary of the end of World War II, defense minister Kihara Minoru visited the controversial Yasukuni shrine honoring Japan's war dead, the first such visit by a defense minister since 2021. (Kishida sent an offering but has not visited Yasukuni as prime minister.) Steps like this could impact the recent thaw in Japan-South Korea ties, one of the Kishida government's signature achievements, which rests in large part on the relative restraint in both countries on issues related to history. The complexities of regional diplomacy are but a few of the challenges Kishida's successor will navigate as Japan enters a period of political transition.

Christopher B. Johnstone is senior adviser and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Nicholas Szechenyi is a senior fellow with the Japan Chair and deputy director for Asia at CSIS. Yuko Nakano is a fellow with the Japan Chair and associate director of the U.S.-Japan Strategic Leadership Program at CSIS.

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