Does the U.S. President’s Party Matter to Black and Latino Economic Wellbeing

Story by:

• Inga Kiderra- [email protected]

Topics covered:

• Political Science
• U.S. President
• Partisan Differences
• Economic Wellbeing

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A newly released report from the Yankelovich Center for Social Science Research at the University of California San Diego offers a rare, direct test of the impact of the party of the U.S. president on Black and Latino economic well-being.

The report - authored by UC San Diego political scientist Zoltan Hajnal, co-director of the Yankelovich Center - examines U.S. employment, poverty and median income data over the last 75 years, with 36 years of Democratic and 39 of Republican leadership in the White House.

A range of research shows that the U.S. economy performs better under Democratic presidents than Republican ones. Some studies also suggest that the largest benefits accrue to working-class Americans. But few have asked, until now, whether Black and Latino Americans do better or worse economically depending on the party of the White House occupant.

"These findings are stark," said Hajnal. "In the modern era, Black and Latino economic gains have been much greater when the president has been a Democrat.

"Over the past 75 years, Blacks and Latinos have made significant economic gains and narrowed racial disparities under Democratic presidents, while falling further behind under Republicans - a pattern that highlights the crucial role of presidential leadership in shaping racial inequality in America."

The new report builds on earlier peer-reviewed work by Hajnal to assess Black and Latino economic well-being under Democratic vs. Republican presidents - expanding the data set, refining the method and now including the current president and his predecessor.

The new analysis also reveals Black and Latino incomes grow faster, their poverty rates decline more, and the ranks of the unemployed in each group drop more under Democrats than under Republicans.

Though the data are still incomplete for the Trump and Biden administrations, the basic pattern continues.

The year-to-year differences add up over time, the report notes. Across the years with Democrats in office, Black median income grew by roughly $36,000, Black child poverty dropped 40 points, and Black unemployment declined by almost 9 points. Under Republican presidents, Black incomes grew more slowly (roughly $13,000) and Black poverty and unemployment both increased (by half a point for poverty and almost four points for unemployment).

The report finds that partisan differences are almost as significant for Latinos, though it notes there are fewer years of data to inform this analysis. Based on the available data, Latinos experienced dramatic gains in income and major declines in poverty and unemployment under Democrats, while experiencing little change in income and substantial increases in poverty and unemployment under Republicans. For example, Latino child poverty declined by 9 points under Democrat presidents while it increased by almost 3 points under Republicans.

The report shows that differences in economic outcomes are particularly pronounced when a party has been in the White House for four years or more.

"Over the past 75 years, Blacks and Latinos have made significant economic gains and narrowed racial disparities under Democratic presidents, while falling further behind under Republicans - a pattern that highlights the crucial role of presidential leadership in shaping racial inequality in America." Zoltan Hajnal, co-director of the Yankelovich Center for Social Science Research