IFA - Irish Farmers Association
05/09/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 05/09/2024 10:11
Grain Market Update 5th September
Market Prices and News
| Commodity | Nov/Dec 2024 Dried €/T1 |
| IRL Feed Wheat¹ | 225-230 |
| IRL Feed Barley¹ | 210-215 |
| FOB Creil Malting | 240 |
| Paris MATIF Wheat² | 220.50 |
| Paris Oilseed Rape | 470 |
| Maize ex. Port | 215-220 |
² Source: Euronext correct as of 05.09.24 2pm
MATIF wheat futures have rebounded this week, following the significant drop in the last few days of August. The Sep-24 contract dropped as low as €189.50/t on the 26th of August but this has recovered to €204/t on Wednesday September 4th. The Dec-24 contract closed on Tuesday September 3rd at €219.25/t.
Downward revisions to the EU crop have supported a slight recovery in global wheat markets, however, bearish pressure remains from Black Sea exports, harvest pressure and a favourable outlook for maize.
Native price offers for green grain remain scarce as buyers assess the market situation.
Dried native prices for November remain at €225/t- 230/t for wheat with barley at €210-215/t
US maize crop conditions remain in very good condition with 65% rated "good" compared to 53% at this stage in 2023.
Paris rapeseed has seen significant volatility this week, following news that China will open an investigation into dumping of Canadian oilseed rape (Financial Times). However, despite daily movement of €20/t, markets have closed at a similar range of €470/t due to a tight supply balance according to the AHDB.
FOB Creil malting barley closed at €240/t on Thursday, August 29th, with the rolling average for Boortmalt suppliers now at €259.25/t. Two more weeks are left in the average price model.
Global Grain Supply and Demand
EU soft wheat production has been cut again by the EU Commission MARS agency. Exports are predicted to drop to 26MMT, 20% lower than forecast in July of this year.
EU barley and maize production have also been revised downwards this month in the same report, maize production is forecast lower than 2023 despite the higher area planted in 2024.
Strategie grains have estimated EU rapeseed production at just 16.9MMT, this would be 15% lower than 2023 production.
German wheat production has been forecast down 12.7% to 18.8MMT according to the department of agriculture there.
Canadian wheat production is set to rise by 4%, grain maize is set to fall by 1.2% on 2023 (Statistics Canada).
Australian production is set to improve in 2024/25 relative to June estimates. Wheat and barley production are forecast to rise by 9 and 6% respectively. Rapeseed production is forecast up 2% on June estimate but production is 8% lower year-on-year (ABARES).