Balancing Shifting Dynamics: Insights from Asia Think Tank Network Policy Forum on ASEAN Resilience

Tokyo, 19 November 2024: The Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE) gathered thought leaders from 18 to 19 November at the Asia Think Tank Network Policy Forum, where a session titled 'Strengthening Southeast Asia's Resilience through Regional Integration and Economic Cooperation' drew focus on critical regional challenges. Moderated by Dr Catherine Tai, CIPE's Deputy Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific, the session featured a distinguished panel comprising Dr Lili Yan Ing, Senior Economist at ERIA; Gwen Robinson, Editor-at-Large at Nikkei Asian Review; Joanne Lin Weiling, Senior Fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute; and Dr Min-Hua Huang, Director of the Asian Barometer Survey.

Dr Lili Yan Ing delivered an analysis on the implications of Donald Trump's potential economic policies for ASEAN, referencing her recent publication, 'How Trump Will Impact ASEAN. She discussed the ramifications of high tariffs, including up to 60% on Chinese imports and 10% to 20% on other goods. Dr Ing highlighted that ASEAN, the US's fourth-largest trading partner, could face cascading impacts. In 2023, ASEAN's exports to the US totalled US$269.8 billion in 2023, covering products such as electronics, apparel, and tires. However, these exports are now at greater risk due to cost pressures and reduced competitiveness caused by the tariffs.

On trade preferences, Dr Ing underscored that ASEAN exports worth US$11.7 billion benefited from the US Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) in 2023. A GSP re-evaluation targeting Indonesia and Thailand could amplify production costs in the US, potentially eroding export competitiveness while raising inflation.

Dr Ing further cautioned that US policies encouraging reshoring of jobs might depress ASEAN's manufacturing demand, particularly in key sectors such as electronics and textiles. However, she also pointed to opportunities arising from the 'China Plus One' strategy, where ASEAN stands to gain as companies diversify supply chains.

The session expanded beyond Dr Ing's analysis to explore broader themes of regional integration. Gwen Robinson emphasised the importance of leveraging public-private partnerships to bolster critical infrastructure and enhance supply chain resilience. Drawing from her experience with the Nikkei Asian Review, she identified unregulated foreign investments as a potential risk to democratic governance in Southeast Asia.

Joanne Lin Weiling advocated for ASEAN's engagement with multilateral frameworks like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to balance external pressures while strengthening internal markets. She also highlighted Japan's growing role as a strategic partner in advancing maritime security and sustainable energy cooperation in the region.

Dr Min-Hua Huang offered a Taiwanese perspective, stressing the importance of resilient partnerships amidst US-China tensions. Taiwan's approach to safeguarding its semiconductor supply chain serves as a model for ASEAN countries navigating economic interdependence.

The forum concluded with a consensus that ASEAN must prioritise regional cohesion to mitigate external shocks. Strengthening intra-regional trade, investing in emerging technologies, and fostering ethical governance were underscored as pathways to long-term resilience and stability.