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21/07/2024 | News release | Distributed by Public on 22/07/2024 09:23

Biden Drops Out of Presidential Race—What It Means, and What Comes Next

Biden Drops Out of Presidential Race-What It Means, and What Comes Next

Three BU faculty experts with deep knowledge of US presidential politics react to Sunday's "earthquake"

President Joe Biden speaking during the presidential debate with Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump on June 27 in Atlanta. Photo via AP/Gerald Herbert

Politics

Biden Drops Out of Presidential Race-What It Means, and What Comes Next

Three BU faculty experts with deep knowledge of US presidential politics react to Sunday's "earthquake"

July 21, 2024
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President Joe Biden announced on Sunday that he's dropping out of the 2024 presidential race and endorsing Kamala Harris, his vice president, to replace him as the Democratic nominee. The news sent shockwaves through American politics and upended the contest against Republican nominee and former president Donald Trump just three and a half months before Election Day and less than a month before the Democratic National Convention.

"It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your president," Biden wrote in a letter posted on social media while he remained in isolation with COVID-19 at his home in Delaware. "While it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and focus entirely on fulfilling my duties as president for the remainder of my term."

pic.twitter.com/RMIRvlSOYw

- Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024

Shortly thereafter, he endorsed Harris, writing, "Democrats-it's time to come together and beat Trump. Let's do this."

The announcement comes after weeks of pressure from large swaths of his party for Biden to step down, following a disastrous debate performance on June 27 that brought to a boil long-simmering questions about his age and acuity. Had he won, Biden, 81, would have been the oldest president ever elected. Now that superlative would go to former president Donald Trump-the Republican nominee-should he win. Trump, who is 78, has faced comparatively little questioning about his age and fitness, despite frequent verbal missteps and sometimes incoherent speech.

Democrats now face a whirlwind countdown to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago August 19 to 22.

BU Today spoke to three Boston University professors with deep knowledge of American presidential politics about Biden's historic decision and its likely effect on the race: Lauren Mattioli, an assistant professor of political science in the College of Arts & Sciences; Arjun Vishwanath, a CAS assistant professor of political science; and historian Andrew David (CAS'05, GRS'18), a College of General Studies lecturer in social sciences.

"I don't think 'earthquake' is an overstatement," Mattioli says.

Lauren Mattioli
Andrew David
Arjun Vishwanath. Photo by Bimal Nepal Photography

Q&A

with Lauren Mattioli, Arjun Vishwanath, and Andrew David

BU Today:How big of a deal is this, historically?

David: It's probably hard to overstate how significant this is, at least in modern US political history. This has not happened since LBJ in 1968. This is a really big deal.

Vishwanath: This is unprecedented in the modern era of presidential elections, really, since 1972. It's the sort of thing you might see on The West Wing.

BU Today:Could this give a bump to the Democrats similar to what Trump has received in the wake of the GOP convention (and last week's assassination attempt)?

David: I think a lot of the angst you're seeing among Democrats, and probably a lot of the concerns-well, I'm not going to say they'll go away, but I think this will bring enthusiasm back to the party. You look at what the donors are saying, you know, telling the president to drop out-well, I'm not sure they're going to be happy with Kamala, necessarily, but the donor class and the political elite and a lot of rank and file Democrats, this is what they were looking for. So I think you're going to see a big boost for them, at least in the short term.

For Republicans, it seems to me there's a real downside for acting too happy, and Biden could get a sympathy bounce from this (when do we start getting the "Thank you, Joe" fundraising e-mails?). That could help the Dems.

Vishwanath: It's hard to say. If you just look at polling right now, Biden, on average, is certainly performing worse than Trump in national polls. So is Harris. And it is not clear just on the basis of that polling that Harris would fare much better than him.

I think the one place where I would expect to see a boost is in terms of activists in the Democratic party. I think there has been a lot of reluctance to move forward with Joe Biden, which might translate into fewer people out in the streets, canvassing for Biden in October. And I think that's something that Harris can potentially fix. She can excite a segment of the base that in turn will be mobilized to knock on doors, to call people, to text. But these days elections are just so polarized on national lines that I don't think there's a huge boost that she's gonna get relative to Joe.

Mattioli: It will depend on how the next couple of weeks go. If the Democrats can look united behind a candidate that people are enthusiastic about, it could really affect voters in marginal districts, in marginal states. Or if the campaign turns really nasty, we know that sometimes that can depress turnout. Is really difficult to assess in the absence of context, because there's going to be a lot of ripple effects from this.

One thing that will certainly happen is increased attention on that person. There will be an unprecedented move to, 'Okay, who is this person? What do they stand for? What are their policy positions?' And to the extent that undecided voters agree with Kamala Harris, that could have a major effect. What she brings to the table that is distinct from Joe Biden might be an ability to bring people to vote for a Democratic candidate who otherwise might have stayed home.

Abortion is the killer issue for Republicans, right? More moderate members of the Republican party have been pushing for Trump not to talk about reproductive rights, because [Republican] policy positions are really unpopular with a lot of voters especially, along with a host of other anti-feminist policy positions that he's taken, like getting rid of no-fault divorce, for example. And Harris being strong on those issues, and if she is the nominee, making it a focal point of the campaign could raise the salience of that issue even more than it already is among voters.

BU Today:What are the practicalities here going forward? Will the Democrats indeed unite to nominate Harris or will there be a contested convention?

David: There's absolutely a lot to be settled. I think a lot of this comes down to, this is a moment where I think the party and the personalities of the party have to kind of balance their own political ambitions with what they think is the good of the party and the country.

Vishwanath: It's possible that we'll have a contested convention. I think a lot of these folks must have debated behind closed doors how it will help the eventual nominee to do that versus not doing that. My suspicion is we're gonna have a series of endorsements for Kamala. Certainly the Congressional Black Caucus, that would not be a surprise if they do it. And so I think that will put her in a presumptive position to be the nominee.

BU Today:What is the electoral effect for Democrats if Harris is the nominee-how is this going to help them?

David: She potentially could energize women, which is a very important demographic, and something that they seemed to be struggling with, especially on abortion. There was also concern that Biden had a problem with African American voters. I'm not entirely sure that's true, but I think she could turn that around. Biden certainly had trouble with other minority groups within the Democratic coalition. There's a big fear that some Latinos, and potentially Arab Americans, might be looking towards Trump because of policies Biden has implemented or not implemented. Can Harris wash her hands of that completely? No, but at least she has a sort of plausible deniability.

Vishwanath: The fact of the matter is the things we're talking about now are almost certainly not the things we're going to be talking about in October. The types of things that will matter in October and the first week of November are going to be very different than what's happening right now. There's still meaningful variation in the polls at this point, such that we really want to start looking at how they appear after Labor Day.

BU Today:Is America ready to elect a woman of color as our president?

David: Absolutely, I think.

Vishwanath: Especially given her racial background, there will be undertones, or perhaps even overtones, that she was a candidate chosen by affirmative action, and that therefore she was unqualified. That can go one of two ways. I mean, I think that sort of line can resonate with some voters, and I think it could also turn off a lot of other voters who think that these types of attacks are uncalled for, and that these attacks are racialized. And so there's certainly a risk if Trump and or his surrogates lean too much into that angle.

Mattioli: Is Harris a viable candidate? You're basically asking, is America too racist? Is America too sexist? And that says a lot about who we are as a country. We're skeptical about the willingness of our fellow citizens to overcome their prejudices, to vote for a woman or vote for a person of color. That's really depressing, but we do have to acknowledge that even people who say, Oh, sure, I would support a woman for president-when they're actually faced with that decision in the ballot box can sometimes be reluctant. We're at a better place than we ever have been before in American history to elect a woman, but there is a strong and very vocal contingent that is committed to maintaining male dominance in politics.

BU Today:What are the ups and downs facing Harris?

David: She's going to have to really up her game. You know, she was an effective campaigner in 2020. She ended up as vice president. But this is going to require a lot. And that process will be made easier if the party decides to help, and if important members of the party decide to help, to pull together, give her the money, give her the infrastructure needed.

Vishwanath: I think she would be wise not to assume that she's got the nomination sewn up, at least for now, and make a pitch to the Democratic voter base that she deserves to be their nominee.

BU Today:Given all the tragedy in his life and his long history of public service, this is a moment of almost Shakespearean tragedy for Joe Biden, isn't it?

David: It must have been an extraordinarily painful decision for him, and this is also a great sacrifice. [Being president] is what he's wanted to do his entire life. And he got it. And now it's, I'm not going to say it's being taken away from him, but…

As much as there have been questions about Biden's fitness over the last couple of weeks since the debate, I think you also have to look at this and know he evaluated the situation, read the tea leaves on this one, realized that [continuing] was probably not in the country's best interest. He had that kind of honest moment. This was a major, major sacrifice, and that is a story that I'm sure will be told in some detail. But it's going to probably take a while for that story to come out.

Vishwanath: The question that will be interesting, that will help determine his legacy is, what happens in this election. If Harris wins, it will be what the Democrats are phrasing it right now-that he made the ultimate sacrifice. He took one for the team. And the team prevailed as a result. But let's not forget that he took not just a month to make this decision, but several months beforehand, when he could have made the decision 9 or 12 months ago not to run. And he didn't, and it took a lot of people forcing his hand. And so if Trump were to win this fall I think you'll see a lot of people pushing it, not necessarily on Harris, but on Biden, saying it was too little too late, and he should have done the responsible thing last year. So, his legacy, I think, will be much tied up in this.

Mattioli: His whole life has just been soap operatic, right? These huge rises and falls that play on our heartstrings, and have made him really qualified to be a leader. This man has dealt with a lot of grief, a lot of loss. It built empathy in him in a way that was really appropriate to be elected in. And I think that made him the perfect candidate for 2020, when America wanted both a recognizable statesman and somebody who looked like he could really feel the pain that the country was feeling. And it made him perfect for that time. But I think the party's right that he's not perfect for this time.

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