Last Night Train to Kyiv

PRINT

18.11.2024 Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy / Vice-President of the European Commission

HRVP Blog - In the wake of the US elections, I travelled to Kyiv once more with a message of EU support for Ukraine. Despite Russian pressure in Donetsk and relentless attack on civilian targets and energy infrastructure, I found a country determined to prevail. And with a clear ask from the EU: more arms, more ammunition and more funding for Ukraine's innovative defence industry.

© European union, 2024

Last week, I travelled to Ukraine for the fifth time since February 2022. Ukraine has been my personal priority since day one of the full-scale invasion, but my last visit as HR/VP was not a goodbye tour. Coming to Kyiv by night train straight from the European Council in Budapest, and only days before the first meeting of EU Ministers for Foreign Affairs and Defence since the election of Donald Trump, my visit had a clear purpose: to reassure Ukraine of the EU's continued support and assess the immediate needs of Ukraine in its defence against the Russian aggressor.

As always, I was deeply impressed by the resilience and determination of the Ukrainian people. I visited a training centre and had dinner with Ukrainian soldiers on the front-line. They did not spend time contemplating defeat, they came together to fight for their nation. And how could they not: they know full well what they are fighting for. They have seen what the Russian troops did in spring 2022, and continue to do in occupied Ukraine.

The darkest days of European history

One such place is Yahidne. Like Bucha and Mariupol it is a place that takes us back to the darkest days of European history. In Yahidne, I visited a former school building. In its basement, the Russians held 360 Ukrainians for 27 days on 170m2. Many people had to sleep sitting up. There were no toilets and hardly any food. 11 people died. A local man who survived the torment led me through the building.

Yahidne shows that there cannot be peace without justice: Russia has to pay for its many crimes. So far, Ukrainian prosecutors have registered 140.000 cases of war crimes. The EU is supporting Ukraine in its pursuit of justice. Our EU Advisory Mission (EUAM) helps investigate and document crime scenes, to build cases that can stand the scrutiny in court, when the time comes.

But more than anything, the people of Yahidne want to be sure that the Russians never come back. This is what Ukraine is fighting for and nobody who has seen Yahidne and Bucha can doubt their determination.

Don't help us negotiate, help us achieve peace through strength

Ukraine currently faces one of the most difficult military situations since spring 2022. The Russian aggressors continue to put enormous pressure on the Eastern frontlines without any regard to the heavy human losses they are suffering. North Korean forces have moved to positions in the Kursk region and Russia has stepped up attacks on electricity production plants and transformers to plunge the people of Ukraine into the dark and the cold.

At the same time, Ukrainian civilians continue to be terrorised by swarms of Iranian drones and missiles targeting their cities. Almost every night they have to go to underground shelters - an experience I shared during my visit. But while Kyiv is well protected by modern air defence, this protection is scarce in other regions. While I sheltered in Kyiv, a missile struck President Zelenskyy's hometown of Kryviy Rih, killing nearly an entire family.

Despite all that, none of my interlocutors contemplated a ceasefire. This would only appease Russia, giving them time to rearm, while not leading to a just and lasting peace. Currently, Putin clearly does not want negotiations. Every time he outlines his demands, they equal the destruction of Ukraine as a free, independent and sovereign nation. This is why the Ukrainians ask us: "Don't help us negotiate, help us achieve peace through strength". It is ultimately for Ukraine to decide when to sit at the negotiation table and on which terms. To reach this point as fast as possible, Ukraine's European partners should provide the military assistance Ukraine needs to give them a position of strength and force Putin to the negotiation table.

Faster deliveries and fewer self-imposed red lines

The European Union has delivered an unprecedented amount of military assistance to Ukraine. To date, we have provided weapons worth €45bn. That is a 60% increase since my last visit to Ukraine in February 2024. We have also just met our pledge to provide Ukraine with 1 million rounds of ammunition, and by the end of winter, we will have trained 75,000 Ukrainian soldiers. The EU and its Member States are Ukraine's main supporters and the volume of our assistance is growing.

However, despite all that, the current level of assistance remains insufficient to tilt the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine's favour. We give Ukraine just enough to hold, and sometimes even less, while Russia has put its entire economy on a wartime footing and counts with the unconditional backing of North Korea and Iran. We need to step up our assistance and abandon our policy of imposing red lines on Ukraine's defenders. Ukraine urgently needs more air defence, more ammunition and more long-range weapons. And it needs the permission to strike military targets deep inside Russian territory. The latest news on that from the US are very encouraging. Any delays are measured in Ukrainian lives.

And yes, European nations could do more. When we break down our military assistance per capita, it amounts to less than €2 per European citizen per week. Surely, the freedom of Ukraine and Europe's own security are worth much more than the price of a cup of coffee per week. A Russian victory would undoubtedly be far more costly for Europe. The Kiel Institute recently estimated that such a scenario could cost Germany alone 10 to 20 times more than what they are providing now, because of trade disruptions, the need to step up spending on its own defence, and the cost of hosting many more Ukrainian refugees.

Invest more in Made in Ukraine

Another way to step up support for Ukraine is to invest more in Ukraine's own defence industry. The country has developed a vibrant environment of defence companies, which produce everything from small reconnaissance drones, to the long-distance drones, which have recently set ablaze Russian weapons depots hundreds of kilometres from the border, as well as Ukraine-produced ballistic missiles.

I have visited one of these defence companies and met brilliant young engineers who build long-range drones in repurposed factories. From now on, every time someone doubts that Ukraine can prevail, I will respond, "You haven't been to Ukraine for too long". How could anyone who has met those young people doubt that this nation has everything it takes to prevail?

The European Union, with the help of Denmark, has recently channelled € 400 million from the proceeds of Russian frozen assets to Ukrainian defence companies. Ukraine's defence industry has expanded 18-fold since 2022, it currently has capacities that are not fully used. This is why my Ukrainian interlocutors have asked us to dedicate a bigger share of the second tranche of these proceeds to their defence industry. It should be at least € 1 bn. Nowhere else do we get as much value for money. Ukraine is not only producing drones, missiles and other military equipment cheaper than any other place in Europe, it is also better and quicker in adjusting to the needs of their soldiers on the frontlines.

We should also not shy away from considering repurposing the € 300bn of frozen Russian assets - not just the revenues - for the defence of Ukraine. It is only fair that Putin's aggression comes at a heavy cost.

Today, I have shared the lessons of my visit to Ukraine during my, probably last, Foreign Affairs Council meeting. No matter what happens in the US, Europe's response can only be to continue honouring our commitments to Ukraine and to its people. This will for sure require more resources, but if we European finally want to take our destiny into our own hands, these resources must be found, including by expanding our financial toolbox through EU debt and new own resources. Russia´s wartime economy is no match for the combined wealth of Europe, provided we muster the required political will. This will be the task of the next European leadership. I know that support for Ukraine is on top of their agenda.