2024 Election Initial Analysis: It All Comes Down to Cambria County

PRESIDENT

Trump vs. Harris - WINNER: TRUMP

Election results are in and for the most part, Pennsylvania was painted red. The Trump-Vance ticket bested Harris-Walz 50.46% to 48.40%. The difference between the two candidates was more than 150,000, surpassing Trump's 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton by nearly triple the vote difference. While more analysis will surely be done, Trump had high vote totals in Hispanic-populated areas (Northampton, Luzerne, Berks), where Biden had gotten support in 2020. This shift caused a more definitive win in PA than expected.

US SENATE

McCormick vs. Casey - LEADING: MCCORMICK

While the polls showed Dave McCormick, and nearly every other GOP U.S. Senate candidates trailing Trump's totals in their respective states by more than 5 points, when it mattered, he closely followed Trump's vote totals. Though the race is tight, McCormick leads the 18-year incumbent, Bob Casey, 49.09% to 48.35%; a difference of just over 50,000 votes. Interestingly, there were three third-party candidates on the ballot: Libertarian, Green, and Constitution Party. The vote totals for these candidates were approximately 87,000, 62,500, and 22,828, respectively. Going into election night, Democrats controlled the Senate by one, but Republicans flipped at least three seats and sit at 52 and this total could go as high as 54 when it's all counted in the other close-race states.

PA ROW OFFICES

Sunday vs. DePasquale - WINNER: SUNDAY

DeFoor vs. Kenyatta - WINNER: DEFOOR

Garrity vs. McClelland - WINNER: GARRITY

It was a clean sweep, and it really wasn't close, in the races for the three PA Row Offices: Attorney General, Auditor General, and Treasurer. Dave Sunday handedly beat Euguene DePasquale 51.02% to 46.01% to become Pennsylvania's Attorney General. Sunday will be the first Republican to hold the office since 2012. Republican Incumbent Auditor General Tim DeFoor built upon his 2020 victory, beating Malcom Kenyatta 51.35% to 45.73%. And the highest state-wide Republican vote getter was Republican Incumbent Treasurer Stacy Garrity at 52.14% to Erin McClelland's 45.44%.

U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

+2 Republican

Republican challengers Rob Bresnahan and Ryan Mackenzie beat their respective incumbent opponents, Matt Cartwright and Susan Wild to turn two PA Congressional seats red and solidify a slim, but likely Republican Control U.S. House. Bucks County's Brian Fitzpatrick by an impressive and unexpected 13-points. And in a race that wasn't clear until the very early morning hours, incumbent Republican Scott Perry leads Janelle Stelson by 6,500 votes in the 10^th Congressional District. In the Pittsburgh area, Democrat incumbent Chris Deluzio held off Republican challenger Rob Mercuri by more than 30,000 total votes.

PA STATE SENATE

28R - 22D

In the State Senate, Republicans will maintain the majority at the same 28-22 as they did coming into election night, but it will look a bit different. Political newcomer Joe Picozzi upset Democrat incumbent Jimmy Dillon in Northeast Philadelphia. Though there has not been a concession by Dillion, Picozzi leads by nearly 500 votes. In the Harrisburg-based seat where retiring incumbent John DiSanto is retiring, Democrat Patty Kim wins the newly redrawn D+14 district. The other open seat was in Allegheny County in the 45^th District where Republican challenger Jen Dintini garnered 47.07% of the vote to former PA House member and now Senator-Elect Nick Pisciottano's 52.93%. The other two races in the sights of Democrats were Devlin Robinson and Dan Laughlin, but both won and expanded upon their 2020 totals despite having slightly redrawn districts.

PA HOUSE

101R-101D* (one race still unresolved, one too close to call)

And in the House, all eyes are on Cambria County. A software/printing malfunction caused chaos as the polls opened, forcing every precinct in the county to move to paper ballot. The most watched and most expensive PA House seat happens to fall within the county. Republican Amy Bradley challenges Democrat incumbent Frank Burns in a race where Trump is expected to receive 65% of the vote, but Burns has clung to victory even when the top of the ticket goes the other way. A source indicated all paper ballots are being converted to scannable ballots, but this tedious work could take another day to complete. The mail-in vote has been counted and published, and Burns holds a 1,500-vote lead. But day-of voting has favored Republicans in almost all precincts. All this while there is a race in Northeast Philly involving Aizaz Gill and Sean Dougherty where Democrat-Dougherty holds the slightest of an edge by less than 500 votes. Should this hold, the current PA House make up 101-101, with Cambria County's 72^nd House District deciding the majority.

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