Q&A: How Might Kamala Harris Win in 2024

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Q&A: How Might Kamala Harris Win in 2024?

Jill Greenlee, associate professor of politics, answers our questions about the unique challenges that Kamala Harris will face in the 2024 presidential election.

By Jill Greenlee
Laura Gardner
August 5, 2024 • Humanities and Social Sciences

Brandeis Magazine: How much of an uphill battle does Vice President Harris face getting into the race at such a late date?

Jill Greenlee: Vice President Harris has been in the race and been on the campaign trail as a vice-presidential candidate. Her rise to the top of the ticket changes a lot about the dynamics of the campaign, but she is not an unknown to voters or donors. While this is an unconventional start to a presidential campaign, thus far it looks like she has transitioned to this role incredibly smoothly and has been welcomed with wild enthusiasm by Democratic voters.

Importantly, Harris did not have to deal with Democratic primary voters going through months of handwringing over the "electability" of a woman in the general election. I think this removes an enormous hurdle for her. Now the focus is on how energized Democratic voters are to have her at the top of the ticket after growing anxiety about Biden's candidacy.

BM: As the second woman to compete against Trump, what lessons from Hillary Clinton's campaign could help Harris? Are her chances of success better or worse than Clinton's were in the summer of 2016?

Greenlee: Hillary Clinton's presidential candidacy (and subsequent loss to Donald Trump) inspired a wave of women to run for office. That means that Americans have had more opportunities to see women as candidates, elect women, and see women hold public office since Clinton's 2016 campaign. All of these things alter the context in which voters will make their choice in 2024 in ways that will help Vice President Harris.

There are other differences between 2016 and 2024 that work to Harris' advantage. First, Donald Trump remains a polarizing figure in American politics who is unpopular with many voters. In 2016, Clinton had to paint a picture of what a Trump presidency would look like. Now voters know what it was like, and many do not want to go back there. Second, with the Dobbs decision (in which the Supreme Court held that the Constitution does not confer a right to abortion), the issue of reproductive rights is a more powerful mobilizer for a subset of voters. Harris is well positioned to activate those voters and speak forcefully on this issue. Even in the first days of her candidacy, she's talked about fighting for abortion rights in ways that Biden did not. This will be an important part of her campaign.

BM: Hilary Clinton's loss was devastating for many women at the time - but many women also voted for Trump. How important is it for Harris to capture a large share of women's votes, and how can she best do that?

Greenlee: There is great diversity among women voters in terms of the political issues that they care about and their stances on those issues. That means there are a lot of women who will not vote for Harris, regardless of how she frames her campaign or the issues she places front and center. But there are many more women (and people of all genders) who will either enthusiastically vote for her or be open to considering her. To access that second group, I think tapping into the energy and resources of politically active and organized women who will mobilize their communities is important for Harris. She can do this by talking about a range of issues around which women are organized, such as gun control, reproductive rights, access to high quality and affordable childcare, and issues of equity. The Biden administration has a strong track record of advocating for policy innovation on many of these issues, and she can make a strong case that she'll continue to work on them.

Donald Trump won support from more women voters in 2020 than in 2016; these votes came from white women. Harris will need to win more of those white women back while also retaining the enthusiastic support of Black women and strengthening support from Latinas and Asian women. I think one key to this will be bringing new voters and younger voters to the polls. For a variety of reasons, younger voters - particularly younger women who may be mobilized to restore abortion rights and/or be excited to elect a woman of color to the White House - will be an area of growth for the Harris campaign.