Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 46% to 36% in Virginia, new VCU Wilder School poll finds

As Virginians begin casting ballots this month, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 46% to 36% in the race for U.S. president, according to the most recent Commonwealth Poll from the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University.

The cost of living remains the highest concern for Virginia voters (38%), followed by reproductive rights (21%) and immigration (10%), according to the poll, which was conducted from Aug. 26 to Sept. 6. Virginians are closely split on whom they trust to handle the economy, with 38% of voters trusting Harris and 37% trusting Trump.

The VCU Wilder School is currently conducting another poll, following the first presidential debate between Harris and Trump on Sept. 10, to compare voting intentions.

Presidential election intentions

When respondents were asked which candidate they would vote for if the election for president were held today and they had to decide immediately, Harris leads 46% to 36%. This marks a stark change from the VCU Wilder School Summer Poll on July 16 that showed Trump (39%) with a slight lead over President Joe Biden (36%).

Regarding party affiliation, over 80% of Republican respondents are voting for Trump, while 81% of Democratic respondents are voting for Harris. Among Independents, Trump leads Harris 26% to 19%, with 22% saying they would not vote and 11% undecided. By comparison, 27% of Independents in the summer poll had expressed support for Robert Kennedy Jr. and 16% for Trump. The latest results suggest that many former supporters of Kennedy are now backing Trump.

Most important voting issues

Overall, the three most important issues for Virginians are the rising cost of living (38%), women's reproductive rights (21%) and immigration (10%). These priorities remain unchanged from the VCU Wilder School Summer Poll. For Democrats, the most important issue is now the cost of living, a shift from women's reproductive rights being the top issue in the previous poll. The cost of living continues to dominate for Republicans and Independents as well.

Trust in the economy

Respondents were also asked whether they trusted Harris or Trump more regarding the economy. Voters were nearly tied, with 38% favoring Harris and 37% favoring Trump, while 18% trusted neither. Among Independents, 36% trust Trump, and 15% trust Harris, with 34% trusting neither.

"These latest poll results show Harris' focus on her support of women's reproductive rights resonated well with respondents," said L. Douglas Wilder, 66th governor of Virginia and spokesperson for the poll. "They also showed that Trump did not improve his numbers relative to who would best handle inflation, the economy and health care. It seems that Harris gained from the debate, while Trump's numbers were in decline."

Access the full results of the latest VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll.

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