China Launches Sea and Air Drills Around Taiwan

China's latest military maneuvers near Taiwan have raised alarms about the potential impact on peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait; Eric Gomez, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, has shared insights for your stories. https://​www​.cato​.org/​m​u​l​t​i​m​e​d​i​a​/​c​a​t​o​-​d​a​i​l​y​-​p​o​d​c​a​s​t​/​w​h​a​t​-​h​a​s​-​u​s​-​p​r​o​m​i​s​e​d​-​t​aiwan

"China's recent military exercise around Taiwan, dubbed "Joint Sword 2024B" has raised concerns about peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. The exercise is not a good development, but outright conflict in the Strait remains unlikely.

Joint Sword 2024B is the second iteration of the Joint Sword exercise this year, with the first taking place in late May shortly after Taiwan inaugurated its new president Lai Ching-te. The more recent exercise followed a speech by Lai marking Taiwan's National Day of October 10th or 10/10. In both instances, Chinese military aircraft and naval vessels deployed to exercise areas that surrounded Taiwan, though the Chinese military did not cross into Taiwan's territorial airspace or waters. Joint Sword 2024B was shorter than 2024A, lasting only one day instead of two. The second exercise also involved the Chinese Coast Guard for the first time.

What does the exercise imply for peace and stability? Both the exercise itself and the rhetoric around it seems slightly dialed down from 2024A. Lai's 10/10 speech used less inflammatory rhetoric, and China's response was shorter and their own rhetoric around the events less severe than earlier this year. What happens next will be important for gauging the prospect for peace. China will probably not stop its military activities around Taiwan, and it feels like it must respond to any major speech by President Lai to underscore its opposition to his policies. However, with both sides dialing down things slightly from earlier this year there may be an opening for diplomacy to keep things from escalating, even if the situation remains tense."

About the Author: Eric Gomez is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. His research focuses on the U.S. military budget and force posture, as well as arms control and nuclear stability issues in East Asia. In 2020, Gomez was a member of the Project on Nuclear Issues Nuclear Scholars Initiative program, where he conducted research on the impacts of U.S. intermediate-range missiles on U.S.-China strategic stability

If you would like to speak with Eric, please let us know:

Emily Salamon
CATO Institute
pr@​cato.​org