Rep. Cline Introduces Bill to Restore Original Intent of the Budget Baseline

Today, Congressman Ben Cline (R-VA) introduced the No Bias in the Baseline Act to revise the fiscal distortions embedded in the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) baseline projections. This legislation will empower Congress with the tools needed to make informed financial decisions and eliminate the baseline bias in the budget process in favor of higher spending.

"It is essential that Congress is provided with the resources needed to make informed financial choices and get our nation back on a sound, fiscal path," Rep. Cline said. "The Congressional Budget Office should empower Members by offering tools that facilitate wise decision-making, and current law prevents them from doing so. Our legislation seeks to arm Congress with the necessary resources for precision and prudence in budget deliberations, with a steadfast commitment to prioritizing the needs of the American people."

Paul Winfree, President & CEO of the Economic Policy Innovation Center (EPIC) said, "Representative Cline and Senator Braun's No Bias in the Baseline Act is an important proposal that highlights the distortions embedded in the CBO's baseline that push spending higher and hide the true cost of legislation. Transparency is key. Congress should remove the baseline bias."

If enacted, this bill would:

Restore Decision Making Back to Congress: Because these assumptions are baked into the baseline by law, CBO has to operate under the forgone conclusion that Congress will continue increasing discretionary spending to match Biden's inflationary agenda. That, along with the statutory presumptions that Congress will automatically continue any program over $50 million, use debt to bail out insolvent trust funds, and renew excise taxes at their current clip. Senator Mike Braun (R-IN) introduced the companion legislation in the Senate.

The responsibility to make these financial decisions is ultimately that of Congress, and CBO should be giving Members resources that help them to make informed decisions rather than having their primary product assume they choose the most expensive option as a starting point.

Remove Spending Biases from the Baseline:Budget negotiations can be a game of ranges. What this bill would seek to accomplish is to restore the baseline to actually reflect current law in a way that means future negotiations won't begin at an already inflated starting point.

Realistically Score Legislation: Since the Current Law Baseline is used for scoring, it is important that there are no distortions that automatically price in expensive programs beyond their expiration date.

Read the full text of the bill here.

Background: CBO incorporates assumptions required by statute into their baseline in a way that deviates from what projections should be under current law. In fact, about 25 percent of spending in the baseline is just assumed:

• Discretionary: $18 trillion in outlays for discretionary appropriations that have not yet been enacted
• Trust Fund Programs: Assumes $1 trillion in outlays for programs funded by trust funds that will be exhausted
• Mandatory Programs that Expire: $1.8 trillion in outlays for mandatory spending programs that expire under current law
• Expiring Trust Fund Taxes: Assumes $386 billion in revenues that expire under current law
• Net Interest: $3.2 trillion in resulting interest costs from the aforementioned assumptions

In response to a Question For the Record that Rep. Cline submitted following a CBO hearing earlier this year, CBO acknowledged that these assumptions have the effect of distorting both revenues and outlays into the outyears. CBO also acknowledged some of these distortions specifically in this budget alternative uploaded on May 8^th.

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