NI voters are clear how they want MLAs to vote on the Windsor Framework

A new report from Queen's reveals that 90% of those asked had expressed a definitive view, with 57% in favour of the continued application of Articles 5-10 and 33% against.

MLAs are expected to hold a first vote in November/December 2024 after Secretary of State for Northern Ireland (NI), Hilary Benn, formally launched the 'democratic consent process' on 31 October 2024.

The future of core provisions of the Protocol/Windsor Framework - those relating to the movement of goods and the single electricity market (i.e. Articles 5-10) - is subject to the democratic consent of MLAs in a vote that is to be held up to every four years.

Support for 'democratic consent' is highest among those respondents who identify as 'strongly nationalist' (92%), 'slightly nationalist' (87%) or 'neutral' (84%), while opposition is highest among respondents who identify as 'strongly unionist' (90%). Of those identifying as 'slightly unionist' more support MLAs voting in favour (44%) than against (27%) continued application of Articles 5-10.

This report is the twelfth in the 'Testing the Temperature' series on NI voters' views on Brexit and the Protocol/Windsor Framework produced as part of a four-year project led by Queen's University and funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).

Speaking about the latest findings, Principal Investigator, Professor David Phinnemore from the School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics at Queen's said: "This latest poll once again shows majority support for MLAs voting in favour of democratic consent. Such support cannot, however, mask the fact that most respondents who identify as 'strongly unionist' remain implacably opposed to the Protocol/Windsor Framework".

Co-Investigator, Professor Katy Hayward from the School of Social Sciences, Education and Social Work at Queen's commented: "Although there has been a notable decline in media coverage of the Windsor Framework over the last few months, many NI voters clearly still have strong opinions on the topic. Indeed, after a slight softening of differences, the line of division between them appears to be at risk of growing again. That ¾ of respondents to our poll want to see more joint UK/EU presentation of factual information on the subject is surely a sign that people would prefer views to be shaped by facts rather than political positions or identities."

Other key findings include:

• 52% see the Protocol/Windsor Framework as an appropriate means for managing the effects of Brexit on Northern Ireland. This is significantly below the 60% in February 2024 and back to pre-Windsor Framework (i.e. February 2023) levels.

• Voters continue to view the impact of the Protocol/Windsor Framework on political stability in Northern Ireland as being more negative (40%) than positive (36%) but the difference is the narrowest it has been in four years of polling.

• More voters see the impact of the Protocol/Windsor Framework on Northern Ireland's place in the UK internal market as negative (41%) rather than positive (32%); this is a clear reversal of the situation in February 2024 (when it was 41% positive, 34% negative).

• Trust in the UK Government (8%) to manage Northern Ireland's interests in respect of the Windsor Framework is at its highest level, and distrust (74%) at its lowest since polling began in March 2021. Those most trusted in this regard continue to be Northern Ireland business representatives (51%).

• Three quarters of respondents (75%) would like to see the UK and EU jointly present more factual information on the Protocol/Windsor Framework.

• The effects of the Protocol/Windsor Framework rank low among voters' current concerns, with only 5% of respondents placing it as their top concern in a list of ten and 20% putting it in their top three; 58% put it among their lowest three concerns out of the ten listed.

• A majority (84% of voters) expect the Protocol/Windsor Framework to remain a point of contestation in Northern Ireland politics for the foreseeable future, with only 7% disagreeing.

This latest poll (using a weighted sample of 1,020 respondents from across Northern Ireland) was conducted by LucidTalk for Queen's on 18-21 October 2024, and the first poll since the Labour party won the UK General Election.