Existing veterinary colleges adequate to meet US companion animal veterinary demand until at least 2035, major new study published in JAVMA finds

(SCHAUMBURG, Illinois) November 25, 2024 - An analysis of long-term supply and demand trends for veterinary services estimated that the existing educational infrastructure would meet demand in the United States for the next 10 years, barring major disruptions. according to a comprehensive new study of the veterinary labor market published today in the Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association (JAVMA).

The forecast indicates that supply and demand for veterinary services will likely grow at similar steady rates over the next several years. The analysis refutes previous predictions of ongoing workforce shortages in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused disruptions across all sectors of the economy.

"The data do not support an expectation of a continued shortage in the US veterinarian labor markets, as suggested in previous studies," according to John Volk of Brakke Consulting, the JAVMA study's Corresponding Author.

The study, commissioned by the AVMA, used enhanced data collection and analysis to refine projections of the state of the veterinary market over the next decade. This included review of prior studies, data evaluation, key opinion leader interviews, and developing predictive models to 2035.

The study noted the severe disruptions caused by the pandemic to veterinarians, practices and pet owners alike.

"The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic spurred rapid shifts in the US economy and veterinary services sector," Volk said. "Consumer disposable income increased, and spending on pet-related goods and services increased rapidly with lockdowns and work from home. The rapid increase in demand raised concerns of persistent shortages of companion animal veterinarians."

But as society has returned to normal from the depths of the pandemic, "the likelihood of longer-term (veterinary) shortages is remote," the authors concluded.

"Further, because supply and demand constantly seek equilibrium, it is inappropriate to predict a severe shortage or surplus well into the future in the absence of a major disruption that would throw supply and demand out of balance, and no such potential disruption has been identified. Rather, price/wage shifts help demand and supply constantly adjust. Tight labor markets ('shortages') and soft labor markets ('surpluses') tend to be short-lived, no more than two or three years," Volk said.

The study emphasized the likely impact of a rapid expansion in veterinary education on the future supply of veterinarians. "If 13 new schools come onstream in the near future as proposed, it will require a significant increase in demand for veterinary services above current trends to absorb the additional supply without downward economic pressure," Volk said.

The study anticipates modest growth in pet-owning households and commensurate increases in spending on veterinary services for those pets, while noting that fluctuations in disposal income can play a crucial role in demand at any given time.

The authors also recognized several factors that could increase efficiency in delivery of services, including greater utilization of veterinary technicians and enhanced use of technology, such as advancements in record-keeping, artificial intelligence, medical instruments, and digital communication. The authors noted all these "could improve the customer's experience while reducing the time each veterinarian must commit to these activities".