CSO - Central Statistics Office Ireland

29/07/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 29/07/2024 09:45

Preliminary GDP Estimate Quarter 2 2024

Early estimates indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 1.2% in Quarter 2 2024

CSO statistical publication, 29 July 2024, 11am

A CSO Frontier Series Output

This publication is categorised as a CSO Frontier Series Output. Particular care must be taken when interpreting the statistics in this release as it may use new methods which are under development and/or data sources which may be incomplete, for example new administrative data sources.

Key Findings

  • Early estimates indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has increased by an estimated 1.2% in Quarter 2 (Q2) 2024, when compared with Q1 2024.

  • The result was driven mainly by an increase in the Industry sector in Q2 2024.

  • Using the early estimate for Q2 2024, GDP is estimated to have decreased by 1.4% when compared with the same quarter in 2023.

  • Results for the first half of 2024 (H1 2024) show GDP falling by 3.1% when compared with H1 2023.

Statistician's Comment

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (29 July 2024) published its latest Preliminary GDP Estimate for Quarter 2 (Q2) 2024. This is a Frontier Series publication and care must be taken when interpreting these results as methodologies may change and data sources may be incomplete.

These preliminary results are subject to revisions in the Quarterly National Accounts release, which will be published with results for Q2 2024 in early September when additional data sources are available to the CSO. The results will be further updated following the release of the Annual National Accounts for 2024.

Commenting on the release, Enda Behan, Statistician in the National Accounts Data Collection and Quality Division, said: "In today's release, GDP is estimated to have expanded by 1.2% in April, May, and June (Q2) 2024 in volume terms when compared with Q1 2024. This was driven by an increase in the multinational dominated sector of Industry in Q2 2024. GDP is estimated to have fallen by 1.4% when compared with the same quarter of 2023. After combining this preliminary estimate for Q2 2024 with the estimate for Q1 2024 from the Quarterly National Accounts, GDP is estimated to have contracted in the first half of 2024 (H1) by 3.1% when compared with H1 2023.

The preliminary GDP estimates are based on forecasting and data sources that are limited in scope when compared with those used for compiling GDP in the CSO's Quarterly National Accounts. The data sources include information from the CSO Large Cases Unit, Retail Sales, Administrative Payroll Data, and other indicators of activity (See Background Notes for more details on these estimates and the methodology used to calculate the preliminary results)."

Quarter-on-quarter percentage change

The preliminary GDP estimate shows a seasonally adjusted increase of 1.2% in Q2 2024 in volume terms when compared with Q1 2024.

null
Created with Highcharts 9.3.3Chart context menuSource: CSO IrelandQ1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Highcharts.comFigure 1 Seasonally Adjusted Growth Rate of GDP (% change over previous quarter)
Qtr on Qtr
-8-6-4-2024681012
percent
Qtr on Qtr
Q1 2021 9.8906287735
Q2 2021 3.073552351
Q3 2021 2.4404942395
Q4 2021 -0.508798117
Q1 2022 3.6020386195
Q2 2022 2.3426074081
Q3 2022 2.8665534856
Q4 2022 0.1744811057
Q1 2023 -5.443007276
Q2 2023 -1.458403318
Q3 2023 -1.723756595
Q4 2023 -1.542981571
Q1 2024 0.6933961067
Q2 2024 1.2455469198
Table 1 Gross Domestic Product at Constant Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2022) - Seasonally Adjusted
Table 1 Gross Domestic Product at Constant Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2022) - Seasonally Adjusted
Period GDP at Constant Market Prices €million GDP at Constant Market Prices % change on previous quarter
2021
Q1 115,882 9.9
Q2 119,444 3.1
Q3 122,359 2.4
Q4 121,737 -0.5
2022
Q1 126,121 3.6
Q2 129,076 2.3
Q3 132,776 2.9
Q4 133,008 0.2
2023
Q1 125,768 -5.4
Q2 123,934 -1.5
Q3 121,798 -1.7
Q4 119,918 -1.5
2024
Q1 120,750 0.7
Q21 122,254 1.2
1This is an early GDP Estimate at T+30 days

Year-on-year percentage change

In Q2 2024, GDP is estimated to have decreased by 1.4% relative to Q2 2023.

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Created with Highcharts 9.3.3Chart context menuSource: CSO IrelandQ1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Highcharts.comFigure 2 Non-Seasonally Adjusted year-on-year Growth Rate of GDP (% change over same quarter in previous year)
Year on Year
-15-10-50510152025
percent
Year on Year
Q1 2021 13.570113144
Q2 2021 23.046256483
Q3 2021 13.753129177
Q4 2021 15.293294218
Q1 2022 8.262280813
Q2 2022 8.1551045163
Q3 2022 9.2223881651
Q4 2022 8.7726023589
Q1 2023 -0.159405744
Q2 2023 -3.906800826
Q3 2023 -8.381550407
Q4 2023 -9.068828444
Q1 2024 -4.684782238
Q2 2024 -1.410693959
Table 2 Gross Domestic Product at Constant Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2022) - Non-Seasonally Adjusted
Table 2 Gross Domestic Product at Constant Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2022) - Unadjusted
Period GDP at Constant Market Prices €million GDP at Constant Market Prices % change on corresponding period of previous year
2021 479,597 16.3
2022 520,935 8.6
2023 492,128 -5.5
2021
Q1 113,276 13.6
Q2 117,479 23.0
Q3 126,559 13.8
Q4 122,282 15.3
2022
Q1 122,635 8.3
Q2 127,060 8.2
Q3 138,231 9.2
Q4 133,009 8.8
2023
Q1 122,440 -0.2
Q2 122,096 -3.9
Q3 126,645 -8.4
Q4 120,947 -9.1
2024
Q1 116,704 -4.7
Q21 120,373 -1.4
1This is an early GDP Estimate at T+30 days