Polling Insight: 4 Key Takeaways About Hispanic Women Voters Nationally and in Arizona

Hispanic Americans account for half the growth of the voting-age population in the U.S. since the 2020 presidential election, and their diversity of opinion and experiences is as great as their numbers. Former President Trump made gains with Hispanic voters between the last two presidential elections, though an analysis shows they voted for President Biden by wide margins in key states in 2020. Across racial and ethnic groups, women voters overwhelmingly cite inflation as the most important issue determining their vote and are similarly dissatisfied with their options for president. However, women of color, including both Hispanic and Black women, are less motivated to vote and less likely to say they plan to vote in this election. Hispanic women in particular are an important segment of American voters, as they have historically turned out at higher rates than Hispanic men and may be more motivated to vote in this election by the inclusion of abortion and other reproductive health measures on state-level ballots. In a close election, the turnout of Hispanic women voters may tip the scale toward either candidate.

This polling insight from the KFF Survey of Women Voters is based on analysis of Hispanic women voters nationally and in Arizona, a key battleground state for the upcoming presidential election where it is projected that one in four voters will be Hispanic¹. This analysis finds the potential state ballot measure in Arizona which would enshrine abortion rights may motivate younger Hispanic women in particular to cast their vote.

The KFF Survey of Women Voters Dashboard includes more analyses from the survey, as well as the topline and methodology.

#1: Inflation Is the Most Important Election Issue for Hispanic Women Voters; Most Worry About Affording Basic Expenses

Economic issues are top of mind for Hispanic women voters across the country leading into the presidential election, as majorities say they worry "a lot" about affording basic expenses for them and their family, including food and groceries (64%), rent or mortgage (63%), the cost of health care (60%), monthly utilities (56%), and childcare (54% among those with children under age 18). Similar shares of Black women voters say they worry "a lot" about most of these household expenses, while White women voters are less likely than both Black and Hispanic women voters to express worry about affording the items asked about in this survey.

Americans overall have been affected by growing inflation rates after the economy struggled to recover after the COVID-19 pandemic, peaking at 9.1% in June 2022². Over half (56%) of Hispanic women voters say "inflation, including the rising cost of household expenses" is the most important issue determining their vote in the upcoming election, and the Democratic Party has an advantage over the Republican Party when it comes to addressing the cost of household expenses for this group (35% vs. 22%). However, many still say neither party does a better job (43%).

The KFF Survey of Women Voters Dashboard displays top issues determining the vote of Hispanic women voters and other key groups of women voters.

#2: Hispanic Women Voters Are Frustrated, Dissatisfied With Options for President; Younger Voters Are Particularly Disaffected

About six in ten Hispanic women voters nationally say they are "anxious" (60%) or "frustrated" (57%) about the upcoming presidential election, while half (54%) say they are "hopeful," and a much smaller share are "enthusiastic" (35%). Negative feelings surrounding the election may be related to dissatisfaction with the candidates themselves. The poll, fielded before the first presidential debate between President Biden and former President Trump, found over half (55%) of Hispanic women voters say they are dissatisfied with their options for president, including a quarter (27%) who say they are "not at all" satisfied.

Younger Hispanic women voters are particularly disaffected this election cycle. One-third (32%) of those ages 18 to 44 say they are less motivated to vote compared to previous presidential elections (19% of Hispanic women voters ages 45 and older respond similarly), and a quarter (26%) say they would not vote if the election were held today. Younger Hispanic women are also more likely to identify as independent compared to those 45 and older (40% vs. 25%). This patten is consistent across racial and ethnic groups nationally, with younger women more likely than their older counterparts to identify as independent.

In addition, the KFF Survey of Women Voters, which was fielded in late May to early June, finds lack of motivation to vote among younger Hispanic women may be related to their mixed views on the candidates' records. Half (52%) of Hispanic women voters ages 18 to 44 say they were better off financially during Trump's presidency, compared to one in ten who say they are better off now under President Biden and about four in ten (37%) who say there is no difference. Financial security appears top of mind for this voting bloc, among whom six in ten cite inflation as the top issue determining their vote (62%).

Though Trump may have a comparative advantage on voters' perceptions of their financial situations during his presidency, Biden does better among younger Hispanic women voters on reproductive health issues. This group is over twice as likely to say they trust Biden over Trump to do a better job deciding policy related to abortion access (40% vs. 19%) and birth control access (45% vs. 18%) in the U.S. Though once again, four in ten say they trust neither candidate to do a better job in each of these areas (41% and 37%, respectively).

#3: In Arizona, a Key Battleground State, the Arizona Right to Abortion Initiative May Drive Turnout Among Younger Hispanic Women Who Support Abortion Rights

Analysis suggests that turnout of young Hispanic voters in Arizona was a key part of President Biden's narrow victory in the state in 2020. The candidate who wins the 11 electoral college votes in this swing state in 2024 could tip the scale for who wins the presidency, especially if this crucial voting bloc turns out once again.

Fielded in late May to early June, the KFF Survey of Women Voters finds about one third (32%) of younger Hispanic women voters ages 18 to 44 in Arizona say there is a 50-50 chance or less of voting in the upcoming November election. Just 7% of older Hispanic women voters, ages 45 and older, say the same. These younger voters are also more likely to not affiliate with either political party (40% vs. 14% who identify as independents). These patterns among younger Hispanic women voters in Arizona are also found among this group nationally.

If the presidential candidates are not motivating younger Hispanic women in Arizona to vote, a citizen-initiated amendment to the state constitution enshrining abortion rights, which will likely appear on the ballot, may encourage this group to turn out. A large majority (82%) of Hispanic women voters ages 18 to 44 say they support the Arizona Right to Abortion Initiative, which would establish a fundamental right to abortion until fetal viability, typically between 23 and 25 weeks of pregnancy. Notably, two-thirds (67%) of younger Hispanic women voters say they would be more motivated to vote if it makes it on the state ballot. Smaller shares of Hispanic women ages 45 and older say they support the measure (46%) and would be more motivated to vote if it is on the ballot (45%).

#4: President Biden Has the Advantage Among Hispanic Women in Arizona on Abortion, Though Many Still Trust "Neither Candidate"

During the first presidential debate in June (held after the field period for the survey), both President Biden and former President Trump reaffirmed their stances on abortion. Biden declared his commitment to restoring Roe v. Wade, which would secure a federal right to abortion until fetal viability, akin to the Arizona Right to Abortion Initiative which young Hispanic women in the state overwhelmingly support. In contrast, Trump stated the legal status of abortion should be left to the states to decide, a policy stance that 77% of younger Hispanic women voters from Arizona oppose. A majority (59%) of Hispanic women voters in Arizona, regardless of age, say this year's election for president will have a "major impact" on access to abortion and reproductive health care in their state. However, while younger Hispanic women voters are twice as likely to say they trust Biden over Trump when it comes to deciding policy related to abortion and birth control access in the U.S., three in ten or more still say they trust "neither" candidate.

Hispanic women who cast their ballot in the upcoming 2024 presidential election will be deciding between two candidates whose incoming tenure will address policy related to inflation, threats to democracy, immigration, and abortion - all top issues determining the vote of this growing voting bloc. In Arizona, a state with a growing Hispanic electorate that is majority younger and female, it is unclear whether turnout of young Hispanic women who may show up to vote for the Arizona abortion rights measure will translate to an advantage for either candidate. With substantial shares declaring trust in neither candidate to address reproductive health issues, alongside disaffection towards the election overall, the presidential nominees will each need to convince this bloc of largely disaffected voters that his presidency will best address their needs and top issues.

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