What is just transition in the context of climate change?

A just transition seeks to ensure that the substantial benefits of a transition to a low-emission, carbon-neutral economy that is needed to stabilize our climate systems and halt climate change are shared widely by ensuring that those who stand to lose economically, in the short term due to this transition are adequately supported - be they countries, regions, industries, communities, workers or consumers.

Why is just transition important for the agrifood and water sector?

The agrifood sector accounts for 22 to 33% of the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This sector is also the most vulnerable to climate change impacts as it is among the most weather-exposed occupations. Most of the world's most vulnerable populations depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Investments in agriculture and rural development have been one of the most effective engines for rural poverty alleviation.

Agriculture accounts for 70-80% of consumptive water use and is an integral part of the agro-food systems. We know that climate change has led to intensification of water cycles globally, leading to problems of too much water, too less water, water at the wrong time, at the wrong place and poor quality of water. Agricultural water use needs to be tackled as a part of the just transition journey in the agri-food sector, as the burden of water related hazards like floods and droughts falls disproportionately on the vulnerable small-scale producers in the global South.

Meanwhile, the science is unambiguous. To remain within the 1.5 to 2°C targets that all countries agreed to when they signed the Paris Agreement in 2015 requires rapid, deep, and sustained emissions reduction in all sectors, including the agrifood sector. As emissions reduction picks pace in other sectors like energy and transport, inevitably, the attention will shift to the agrifood sector to reduce emissions. However, existing technologies available for emissions reduction often have yield and income penalties - putting a disproportionate burden on the smallholder farmers struggling to make ends meet. This is where the just transitions framework is needed for the agrifood sector.

Three Pillars of just transition in the agrifood and water sector

1. Greater R&D support for low emissions innovations which does not reduce incomes or compromise the livelihoods of smallholder producers: Given the nature of the agrifood sector, and particularly how food is currently produced and water is managed, and significantly less climate investments have happened in this sector means that we do not have enough mature technologies, and approaches that help us move to low emissions pathways without compromising food and livelihood security yet. Hence, a just transition framework in the agrifood sector calls for more significant R&D investments to develop technologies and approaches that can be win-win-lower emissions while not harming food production and the livelihoods of the most vulnerable.
2. Transition support for loss of incomes and livelihoods in the interim: Meanwhile, while R&D on innovations continues, small-scale producers who become early adopters of technologies that help reduce emissions and sequester carbon must be compensated through credible payment mechanisms or brought under social safety nets through transition support programs. Protecting the livelihoods of the most vulnerable small-scale producers while they move on to lower emissions mode of production will be an essential pillar of a just transition.
3. Policy coherence and governance support for transition: Moving towards a low-emissions food and water system where none are left behind will entail policy coherence and governance support at all levels. This will include aligning agricultural, environmental, and social policies to support sustainable practices, strengthening land tenure rights, and promoting participatory approaches to decision-making at all levels.

Outcomes of a just transition in the agrifood and water system

If managed well and supported by science and innovation while protecting the interests of the most vulnerable under adequate policy and governance support (the three pillars), a just transition in the agrifood sector will lead to:

1. Improved food security and nutrition outcomes: A just transition to agrifood systems ensures all communities access to nutritious and culturally appropriate food. This involves promoting diversified farming systems, local food production, and equitable distribution mechanisms to address food insecurity and malnutrition.
2. Improved water and environmental outcomes: Low-emissions food systems prioritize ecological stewardship, including water conservation and efficient use of water in agriculture, soil health, biodiversity preservation, and climate resilience, leading to better environmental outcomes.
3. Improved livelihood and economic opportunities: Transitioning to low-emission agrifood systems, if done well, will improve livelihoods and economic opportunities for those who make the transition successfully through efforts to support farmers and agricultural workers through training programs, access to resources and alternative income-generating activities, as well as provision of social safety nets to ensure a smooth transition.
4. Better resilience to climate change and external shocks: Building resilience into agrifood systems involves adopting climate-smart agricultural practices, investing in climate-resilient crop varieties, improving infrastructure for water management and irrigation, and enhancing early warning systems for weather-related disasters.
5. Enhanced social equity and inclusion: A just transition to agrifood systems prioritizes the needs and interests of all stakeholders, including smallholder farmers, rural communities, indigenous peoples, and agricultural workers. Policies and interventions under this framework will aim to reduce inequalities, empower marginalized groups, and ensure their participation in decision-making processes.
6. Preserving cultural heritage and traditional knowledge: Indigenous and traditional knowledge systems play a vital role in sustainable agrifood systems. Respecting and integrating conventional agricultural practices, seed-saving techniques, and local food traditions into modern agricultural strategies can help preserve cultural heritage while promoting resilience and sustainability.
7. Contribute to peacebuilding: Food insecurity, further exacerbated by climatic hazards, is a twin driver of conflict and instability. Transitioning to low-emission food systems in ways that do not leave vulnerable communities behind will contribute to long-term peacebuilding.

Learning from challenges of the Just Energy Transition

While embarking on a just transition in the agrifood systems, it is worth paying attention to the challenges several countries and communities face while moving towards a just transition in the energy sector. Similar challenges will also be expected in the agrifood sector.

• Implementation Challenges: translating commitments into tangible actions at the national and regional levels. International development agencies' ability to influence domestic policies and practices varies across countries, particularly in countries with weak governance structures or competing priorities.
• Power dynamics and competing and vested interests: the geopolitical landscape where the interests of powerful countries, multinational corporations, and other stakeholders can influence decision-making processes.
• Constraints in resources, particularly financial resources, can limit the ability to scale up support for just transition efforts. Funding shortages hinder the implementation of technical assistance programs, capacity-building initiatives, and financing mechanisms needed to support renewable energy deployment and social equity measures.
• Social and environmental justice: While a just transition emphasizes addressing social and environmental justice concerns in transitions, there may be limitations in how effectively these principles are integrated into different initiatives and policies led by international communities and domestically.
• Accountability and monitoring: a just transition ultimately depends on its ability to hold governments and other stakeholders accountable for their commitments and actions. Robust monitoring, evaluation, and reporting mechanisms are essential for tracking progress, identifying gaps, and addressing challenges in achieving equitable and sustainable energy transitions.

The United Nations and other international organizations like the CGIAR are critical in promoting a just transition through research, innovation, advocacy, coordination, and capacity-building efforts. However, some inherent challenges and limitations must be addressed to ensure that these initiatives are effective, inclusive, and responsive to the needs of all stakeholders. This requires sustained political will, resources, and concerted action by governments, civil society, research organizations, and the private sector to overcome barriers and advance towards a more sustainable and equitable energy future.

The UAE COP28 Presidency led a robust diplomatic engagement with state and non-state actors through the "UAE Work Program on Just Transition Pathways," which advocates that a just transition must ensure that the shift to a low-carbon economy is fair and equitable, particularly for workers and communities affected by the transition away from fossil fuels. It called for a dialogue among stakeholders, including government representatives, industry leaders, labor unions, and civil society, on strategies and policies to navigate this transition in a way that prioritizes social justice and inclusivity.

The Azerbaijan COP29 Presidency can focus on Just Transition aspects of the agrifood sector. A critical action for this Just Transition in Agrifood Sector Initiative will be minimizing trade-offs and maximizing synergies between mitigation and adaptation actions for reaching all SDGs, particularly SDG 2 on zero hunger. At the same time, such an Initiative must emphasize the issue of climate, peace, and development nexus and incorporate peacebuilding efforts across all subcommittees.

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