Turkey: NATO's Most Peculiar Optimist

Geopolitical Relationship with Europe

Turkey, once known as the proud and powerful Ottoman Empire, stretched from the Fertile Crescent in Northern Africa to outside the doorsteps of Vienna during its sixteenth-century peak. Despite the empire's rapid decay and eventual collapse in the hands of the Triple Entente during World War I, modern Turkey was established by Mustapha Kemal Ataturk and his Young Turk faction. Now, this nation envisions itself as the future leading power to promote Islamic heritage and democratic values and has also sought to use its membership in NATO to pursue these goals. While Turkey's political strategy may sometimes appear enigmatic to its Western allies, the country's foreign policy is highly pragmatic and seeks to strike a balance between its relationships with both Islamic and EU partners.

Even though Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been more cordial to NATO for the sake of his own security and economic goals, he often fraternizes with Russia. One of his most critical goals is to diversify Turkey's alliances even though the country remains a key player in high-commitment security issues with the United States. Despite facing heavy criticism from allies over its engagement with Russia, Turkey views these negotiations as a lucrative opportunity to freely engage with various powers through advancing "new multipolarity". Political scientists categorize Turkey's actions as "complex interdependence," a neoliberal approach adopted by Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP). For instance, in addition to collaborating with Russia, Turkey uses the EU to maintain the satisfaction of international investors and domestic pro-Western industrialists. This policy of non-alignment allows Turkey to engage with major powers without the constraints of specific commitments from alliances. In this way, Erdogan practices a balanced approach to global and regional conflicts, engaging with the United States, Russia, and Ukraine from a safe distance while monitoring smaller European powers to ensure they do not compromise regional security.

Grand Strategic Execution: A Double-Edged Sword

Turkey performs foreign policymaking through key instruments such as supporting democratic processes and expanding economic integration with neighboring states. In exchange for these benefits, states are more inclined to cooperate with Turkey's regional goals. This approach of spreading Turkey's hegemony through soft power is referred to as "Geoculture," which involves selectively using shared cultural elements with other nations to protect international prestige and increase a state's regional hegemony. Significant opposition party leaders of Erdogan partake in this proactive approach because it is essential to protect Turkish national security in a region threatened by worsening problems such as terrorism and mass migration.

However, Turkey's weak governance hinders the country's ability to achieve its ambitious goals. Since incumbent Recep Erdogan won reelection, many opponents have criticized the erosion of Turkish democratic institutions. Their reasoning is justified; Erdogan's administration is plagued by inept policy decisions rooted in democratic backsliding, erosion of the rule of law, unorthodox economic approaches, and reckless foreign policy. All these instances of backsliding undermine foreign investments and alienate allies. This is another obstacle to Turkey's grand strategic goals, as civil servants and the general population may lack trust in the government and oppose Erdogan's legislation. If Erdogan is unable to gain the necessary popular support, his national security priorities such as border protection and counterterrorism efforts may be hindered.

Turkey's Goals for NATO Membership

Erdogan envisions a future in which Turkey's reputation is established as a serious independent nation instead of a mere security asset on Europe's southeastern flank. The recent January 2022 NATO summit in Brussels provided Erdogan with an opportunity to pursue his long-term objective of joining the European Union in hopes of growing the Turkish economy through global trade. However, for the past two years, Turkey has criticized and delayed Sweden's NATO membership bid due to Quran burning in the country, demonstrations the Swedish government argues are protected by the country's freedom of speech laws. Despite prolonged bickering between the Turks and Swedes, Turkey eventually approved Sweden's acceptance into NATO, which has re-energized Turkish-EU cooperation on the issue of counterterrorism. While this chronology of Turkey's behavior towards a prospective ally in Sweden may appear confusing from a Western perspective, Erdogan, elites, and his fellow political opponents share the goal of positioning this country as the gatekeeper of NATO expansion due to equally balancing interests in the Middle East and NATO. Their justification for this approach can be rooted in their prime position to buffer, separate, and contain external threats. Therefore, Turkey wants to implement its assertiveness to achieve strategic independence, power, and prosperity. Consequently, Turkey positions itself in new non-western-dominated realms while taking pride in being a long-tenured NATO member and aspiring new EU economic partner.

Since Sweden's accession into NATO, Erdogan has progressively become more cordial to Western powers by negotiating defensive deals, signaling that Turkey will reset its foreign policy goals. The country's first step is to prioritize and re-evaluate security interests, as its current transatlantic alliance with Ukraine is not yet robust enough to defuse the international tensions caused by Erdogan's dealings. This cordiality became evident after Turkey deployed military reserve forces in Kosovo to reduce tensions with Serbia, suggesting that Erdogan is moving away from defense cooperation with Russia (a strong Serbian ally). Ultimately, Erdogan's decision may pave the way for Turkey to become a closer military ally with the West and strengthen its regional security.

Overall, Turkey must sever previous military relations with Russia to become a more appealing trade partner to Western nations. Several incentives for Turkey to invest more in its Western partnerships include attracting additional aid and investment from Western allies, as well as negotiating with the EU Customs Union to help finance reconstruction efforts caused by the 2023 earthquake. These goals highlight Turkey's domestic hindrances, including a steep recession caused by hyperinflation, poor financial management of regional military conflicts, and a declining population, all worsening due to the earthquake. Erdogan believes these problems can be solved if Turkey readjusts their security interests to become a major contributor to various economic initiatives hosted by NATO and the EU. Thus, by obtaining future profits, Turkey can strengthen its security at home and abroad, finance its military objectives in regional conflicts, and support its domestic economic development projects.

Public link

Please use the above public link if you want to share this noodl on another website.