Solar and Wind Won’t Replace Natural Gas for Decades: They Will Depend on It.

Solar and wind are rolling out rapidly in the United States. They account for about 19 percent of energy generation today, and could reach more than 40 percent by 2030. This clean energy will rapidly replace coal, and many expect it will simply replace natural gas as well. But as Robin Gaster explains in RealClearEnergy, that's a mistake: In fact, solar and wind will depend on gas for decades to come.

Today, solar and wind are relatively low cost, and prices will likely fall further. But they are not like fossil fuels-they are what's known as variable renewable energy (VRE)-meaning they only produce electricity when the sun shines or the wind blows.

Sometimes this variation is predictable. For example, solar doesn't generate power at night, and generates less power in the winter. But some variation is unpredictable; cloud cover or wind droughts can last weeks at a time. These "VRE deficits" are not a problem as long as wind and solar are a small percentage of electricity generation. But as they become dominant, how do we fill the gaps when VRE supply is low?

Read the op-ed.