MBA Forecast: Mortgage Originations to Increase 28 percent to $2.3 Trillion in 2025

DENVER (October 27, 2024) - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today announced at its 2024 Annual Convention & Expo that total mortgage origination volume is expected to increase to $2.3 trillion in 2025 from the $1.79 trillion expected in 2024.

Purchase originations are forecast to increase 13 percent to $1.46 trillion next year. By loan count, total mortgage origination volume is expected to increase by 28 percent to 6.5 million loans in 2025 from the 5.1 million loans expected in 2024.

MBA's 2025 outlook was presented at its 2024 Annual Convention & Expo by Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Research and Business Development; Joel Kan, Vice President, Deputy Chief Economist; and Marina Walsh, CMB, Vice President of Industry Analysis.

According to Fratantoni, the U.S. economy has been stronger than expected this year, but MBA is forecasting a slowdown in economic growth and additional incremental increases in the unemployment rate in 2025.

"Monetary policy has turned the corner with the first rate cut in September 2024. The expectation of further rate cuts has already been baked into mortgage rates, and we expect mortgage rates are likely to remain within a narrow range around 6 percent for the foreseeable future," said Fratantoni. "We are bullish about the spring 2025 housing market. Mortgage rates at this level should support homebuyer demand and gradually reduce the lock-in effect, thereby increasing the inventory of existing homes and supporting higher purchase origination volume in 2025."

"The job market will likely slow somewhat as we enter 2025, with fewer jobs added and the unemployment rate increasing from its current rate of 4.1 percent to 4.7 percent by the end of 2025. Inflation will gradually decline towards the Fed's 2 percent target by the end of 2025," Fratantoni continued.

The risk of growing budget deficits will keep longer term rates from falling further, even as the Fed cuts short-term rates. The spread between mortgage and Treasury rates, at around 240 basis points currently, remains roughly half a percentage point wider than historical averages. MBA expects additional narrowing of this spread in 2025 as investors reallocate out of cash and into longer-term assets.

MBA's baseline forecast is for mortgage rates to end 2025 at 5.9 percent and remain close to that level for the forecast horizon.

Kan emphasized that demographics would continue to support housing demand, as younger age cohorts are either in or entering prime homeownership ages. However, affordability challenges remain, as median purchase mortgage payments are still elevated and emerging cost burdens from rising homeowners' insurance premiums and rising property taxes are adding to the cost of homeownership.

"There has been growth in purchase applications for both new and existing homes, with application levels above last year's pace. Mortgage rates are lower than they were a year ago, and for-sale inventory has started to grow somewhat, which is helping to ease price pressures in many markets. It is also encouraging that an increasing share of first-time homebuyers have turned to newly built homes as an option, given the lack of previously owned starter homes on the market. These factors should support a bigger gain in purchase activity early next year, especially if mortgage rates remain near these levels or decline further," Kan said.

Walsh noted during her presentation that there were positive signs for production profitability starting in the second quarter of the year, after eight consecutive quarters of net production losses.

"Production volume began to pick-up in the second quarter which led to a reduction in per-loan costs," said Walsh. "With more volume forecast in 2025 and 2026, lenders may be poised to increase their head counts after two of the most difficult years in the mortgage business, but cost escalation remains an ongoing concern"

Walsh continued, "Mortgage servicing has enabled many lenders to stay profitable overall. We may see delinquencies rise modestly due to a slowing economy, natural disasters and payment shock from increasing property taxes, insurance and HOA and condo fees. Fortunately, between accumulated equity that stands at over $35 trillion and loan workouts, homeowners have more flexibility to resolve hardships."

MBA's new Mortgage Finance Forecast and Economic Forecast can be viewed here.