Election forecasting topic of eCornell keynote address

Political scientist Peter Ennshas earned a reputation for his analytical skills and understanding of political dynamics, having predicted the winner in 49 out of 50 states 100 days before the 2020 U.S. presidential election. In an eCornell keynote address on Oct 1 at 2:30 p.m., Enns will offer insights on the art and science of political forecasting and what his current forecast tells us about the 2024 election. Register hereto attend the free talk.

In his keynote, Enns will address questions such as how he predicted election outcomes with such high accuracy; why we can forecast the outcomes far in advance despite the hundreds of millions of dollars presidential campaigns spend to influence the election; and which candidate has the advantage in 2024.

Enns acknowledges the intricacies of predicting election outcomes, emphasizing that while no one can forecast the future with absolute certainty, sophisticated models can provide valuable insights into the probabilities. "It's not just about collecting data. It's about interpreting it correctly," said Enns, professor in the Department of Government in the College of Arts and Sciences and the Brooks School of Public Policy. The key, he explained, lies in understanding and analyzing a wide range of factors that could influence the election.

"Professor Enns' keynote address is more than just a lecture; it's a chance to engage with cutting-edge research and thinking in political science, making it a valuable experience for anyone keen to stay ahead in understanding electoral trends and dynamics," said Christopher Wofford, senior producer at eCornell. "For political enthusiasts, government, sociology, public policy majors, and even casual observers, this is a chance to gain a deeper appreciation of how and why certain trends emerge and influence election results."

Enns' research focuses on public opinion, political representation, mass incarceration, and data science. He is also co-founder and chief data scientist at Verasight, a role that underscores his commitment to innovative data solutions. Enns served as executive director of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research from 2015 to 2022 and is currently the Robert S. Harrison Director of the Cornell Center for Social Sciences. His influential work includes three books - "Hijacking the Agenda: Economic Power and Political Influence," "Incarceration Nation: How the United States Became the Most Punitive Democracy in the World" and "Who Gets Represented?" - in addition to numerous academic articles and op-eds. In 2017, he earned the Emerging Scholar Award from the American Political Science Association, recognizing his outstanding contributions to the field.

Elizabeth Lara-Rivera '26 is a communications assistant for the College of Arts and Sciences.