University of Michigan
10/07/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 10/07/2024 07:53
More young, moderate-income Detroiters plan to vote since Harris became Democratic nominee
The share of Detroiters who say they will definitely vote in November increased from 70% to 77% since Kamala Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee, with the most significant shifts occurring among young and moderate-income Detroiters.
The Detroit Metro Area Communities Study at the University of Michigan surveyed Detroit residents from June through August about their intentions to vote, with an eye on how Detroiters' intentions to vote changed after the debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in June, after the first assassination attempt on Trump in July, and after Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Harris later in July.
[Link]Mara Cecilia Ostfeld"While much attention is often given to how campaigns influence voters' decisions, less focus is placed on how campaign events impact voter turnout and who shows up to vote," said Mara Cecilia Ostfeld, a faculty lead for DMACS and co-author of a new study on Detroit's changing electorate.
"With Michigan playing a pivotal role in several federal races this November, it is crucial to understand how these campaign events are driving voter engagement, particularly in the state's largest city."
When Biden was the presumed nominee, 38% of eligible Detroit voters aged 18 to 34 said they would definitely vote in the presidential election. After Harris became the presumed nominee, 57% of Detroiters in that age range said they plan to vote. The shift in presumptive Democratic nominee from Biden to Harris did not have a significant impact on the likelihood of voting in any of the other age groups (35-54, 55-64 and 65 and over).
Looking at intentions to vote by income level, the Harris candidacy correlated with the largest shift among Detroiters with household incomes between $30,000 and $59,999. Sixty-one percent of people in that income bracket said they would definitely vote when Biden was the presumed candidate, compared to 80% when Harris became the presumed candidate.
"There was not a significant change in the voting intentions of eligible Detroit voters when comparing the periods before and after the presidential debate between Biden and Trump and the periods before and after the July assassination attempt on Trump at a campaign rally. The Harris candidacy made the most difference for Detroiters," said Yucheng Fan, data manager at DMACS and co-author of the report.
With support from U-M's Poverty Solutions, DMACS has published a series of reports leading up to the election on Detroiters' priorities for city government, priorities for the federal government and the reasons some people are planning not to vote.