Saxo Bank A/S
Saxo Bank A/S
06/28/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 06/28/2024 02:10
Q3 Saxo survey reveals young investors are more optimistic about equity markets
As we transition into the second half of 2024, Saxo has run another survey of their clients to gain insights into how they predict the markets will move in Q3.
The latest Saxo client pulse survey indicates a general positive sentiment regarding global equity markets and sector performance, with the majority of the respondents (43.6%) anticipating an increase in the global equity markets. However, the biggest shift in sentiment since last quarter's pulse survey (15.2% to 29.8%) was seen in the increased votes for "no movement" occurring in the markets.
"The equity market has done very well this year, underscoring the optimism among our clients. The increase in clients answering "no movement" could, in my mind signal two things. One is that there's usually a summer lull, when the Northern hemisphere goes on vacation, which could signal less movement in markets. Two, it could be some clients that's previously been very positive, are starting to see clouds of uncertainty in the horizon. That's at least what we believe, that while things seem to be going fine now, there are uncertainties that could make the slightly longer future more uncertain," says Peter Garnry, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.
Geopolitical tensions are of the most concern
Based on the latest survey, a significant portion of investors identified geopolitical tensions (42.9%) and interest rates (37.1%) as the primary factors likely to influence their investment strategies over the next three months. The looming US election also plays a crucial role, with 32.8% of respondents considering it a significant influence.
"Geopolitics can always be a source of volatility, so our clients should be following the news closely to adjust and diversify their portfolios accordingly. The same goes for a major event like the US election, where we have two candidates who have differing stances that could impact different sectors. We're monitoring the election closely through our US Election news centre, to make sure our clients are as knowledgeable as possible when the time comes about how the US election can impact investment portfolios," says Peter Garnry, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.
These concerns underscore the heightened uncertainty in the global market, where political and economic events dictate investor sentiment and strategy adjustments.
Younger investors are more optimistic on market performance
When reviewing the answers of almost 2,300 clients on whether they believe global equity markets will increase or decrease, there's a clear trend that different ages have different perspectives.
Although more clients in the age ranges of 76+ still believe the markets will increase, they remain the demographic group with most clients opting for the equity market to decrease, while nearly 60% of those below 35 remain optimistic on equities.
Sector Performance Predictions
When it comes to sector performance, respondents have identified key areas they believe will outperform. Below is a breakdown of the different sectors
Most optimistic sector: Information Technology
Dominating the expectations, 32.2% of respondents see this sector as the top performer, driven by ongoing digital transformation and technological advancements. This is a minor dip in optimism since last quarter, when 33.7% of respondents pushed for IT.
Biggest Jump in optimism: Health Care
16.1% of clients favour health care as a sector that is likely to outperform. This is a jump of 168% of last quarter's 6%.
Peter Garnry isn't surprised by this, having created an investment theme around new biotech a couple of years back. "The health care sector has always been interesting to watch, as it continues to provide a lot of innovation. Recently, Novo Nordisk, and competitors like Eli Lilly, have made a global media impact with their respective weight-loss drugs, bringing the entire sector to the front of investors' minds."
Biggest drop: Energy
Last quarter, the energy sector was the second most selected sector believed to perform the best in Q2 with 17.4% of client votes. However, this quarter saw the sector optimism drop by 63%, chosen only by 6.4% of clients. This moves the energy sector down the rankings from second to fifth.
Regional Outlook
In terms of regional performance North America remains as the region clients believe will perform the best in Q3 (47.6% of respondents). However, Europe has grown in optimism, going from the market predicted to perform the worst behind emerging markets, to jumping by 143% to a second place behind North America.
See the full survey data below
How do you think the global equity markets will perform in the next three months (Q3)?
| Q2 Responses | Q3 Responses | |
| Big decrease | 2.2% | 2.4% |
| Decrease | 24.5% | 17.0% |
| No movement | 15.2% | 29.8% |
| Increase | 50.5% | 42.1% |
| Big increase | 1.1% | 1.5% |
| I don't know | 6.5% | 7.2% |
Which of below events (if any) do you think will affect your investment strategy in the next three months?
| US election | 32.8% |
| Trade wars | 14.3% |
| Geopolitical tensions | 42.9% |
| AI | 20.5% |
| Japanese Yen | 1.6% |
| Inflation | 24.2% |
| Interest rates | 37.1% |
| Other (please specify): | 3.2% |
| I don´t know | 7.1% |
Which global sector do you think will perform the best in the next three months (Q3)?
| Q2 Responses | Q3 Responses | |
| Energy | 17.4% | 6.4% |
| Materials | 10.3% | 7.7% |
| Industrials | 2.2% | 4.0% |
| Consumer discretionary | 1.1% | 3.0% |
| Consumer staples | 2.7% | 2.8% |
| Health care | 6.0% | 16.1% |
| Financials | 9.2% | 3.5% |
| Information technology | 33.7% | 32.2% |
| Communication services | 1.1% | 2.8% |
| Utilities | 1.1% | 2.1% |
| Real estate | 3.3% | 4.0% |
| Other: | 5.4% | 6.2% |
| I don't know | 6.5% | 9.0% |
Which region do you think will perform the best in the coming quarter (Q3)?
| Q2 Responses | Q3 Responses | |
| North America | 48.90% | 47.6% |
| Europe | 9.20% | 22.4% |
| Asia-Pacific | 22.30% | 14.3% |
| Emerging markets | 14.10% | 7.7% |
| Other (please specify): | 2.20% | 0.8% |
| None of the above/I don't know | 3.30% | 7.4% |
Which region do you think will perform the worst in the coming quarter (Q2)?
| Q2 Responses | Q3 Responses | |
| North America | 12.00% | 9.7% |
| Europe | 40.80% | 25.9% |
| Asia-Pacific | 17.90% | 18.7% |
| Emerging markets | 18.50% | 30.8% |
| Other (please specify): | 0.50% | 1.1% |
| I don't know | 10.30% | 13.8% |
About the survey:
The purpose of the Client Sentiment Survey was to gain insights into the expectations of Saxo's clients for the upcoming quarter.
The survey was distributed to Saxo clients between 06/06/2024-18/06/2024 and consisted of 2,299 respondents. The survey was executed in English, French, Dutch and Danish and sent to clients in the respective language markets.
See our press release from last quarter's survey here.