Hoover Institution Welcomes Supporters for Fall 2024 Retreat

Hoover Institution (Stanford, CA) - The Hoover Institution hosted its annual fall retreat on October 17‒18, 2024, welcoming supporters for two days of events that touched on revolutionary technological changes, the US presidential election, and an important court case underway involving material housed at the Library & Archives.

During welcoming remarks, Hoover Institution Director Condoleezza Rice said that challenges at home and abroad are testing America-its institutions, its leaders, and its military might-and the scholars of the Hoover Institution are offering guidance across disciplines to help the United States navigate this crucial period.

The Fellowship has been busy in the last several months. Distinguished Visiting Fellow Jim Ellis led a delegation to Taiwan and met with new Taiwanese president Lai Ching-te. Rice said Hoover continues "to be a go-to place" for understanding US-Taiwan policy. Two major initiatives-Hoover History Lab and the Center for Revitalizing American Institutions - continue to grow. The History Lab's role is to foster vital knowledge about consequential history in academia, policy circles, and the attentive public, while RAI generates and advances research about the role of America's institutions, the inner workings of governing, and building trust in our election system.

Just a few days prior to the retreat, Hoover hosted the fiftieth anniversary gathering of the Shadow Open Markets Committee, with a serving governor of the Federal Reserve board delivering a keynote address. Rice said the Institution continues to shed light, not heat, on the pressing issues of the day. Research by Hoover scholars is helping illuminate a safer, robust, and more responsible path for US policymakers who are steering the country through a series of pivotal moments.

Hoover Institution Director Condoleezza Rice addresses supporters in Hauck Auditorium on October 17, 2024. (Eric Draper)

Rice also introduced Susan McCaw, the new chair of Hoover's Board of Overseers, to the audience. McCaw served as US ambassador to Austria from 2005 to 2007 and was previously vice-chair of the board of overseers. She succeeds John Kleinheinz who remains on the board as cochair with Robert Grady.

New Hoover Institution Board Chair Susan McCaw speaks to Board of Overseers members in Hauck Auditorium on October 17, 2024. (Eric Draper)

Securing Li Rui's Memoirs

Hoover Library & Archives Director Eric Wakin spoke to attendees about the recent civil trial in Oakland, where the widow of Mao Zedong's personal secretary and longtime member and critic of the Chinese Communist Party-Li Rui-is seeking a court order to remove the memoirs of her late husband from Hoover's collections. Li Rui gave the diaries to his daughter, Li Nanyang, to give to Hoover beginning in 2014. Wakin played an interview with Li Rui in which he spoke about how impressed he was with the Hoover Institution and its archival collections. "Li Rui wanted people to be able to read his diaries and that is why he wanted them to be at Hoover," Wakin said.

Hoover Institution Deputy Director Eric Wakin speaks about the ongoing legal battle to keep the manuscripts of Chinese dissident Li Rui on October 17, 2024. (Eric Draper)

Fireside Chat with NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang

Rice spoke for an hour with NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, who sported a leather jacket to match his signature look. NVIDIA, at the time the world's second most valuable publicly traded firm, is a central producer of coveted general processing units (GPUs) used to power generative AI platforms. Rice and Huang spoke about the proper US stance on immigration to secure computer science talent from abroad, how AI will transform US workplaces without creating cause to downsize, and how Huang approaches requests for help from others.

Huang said that even when he has "a gut feel" or confidence in a particular subject matter, he still consults an AI tutor to gain certainty over whether he's right. He encouraged attendees to do the same.

Condoleezza Rice

Hoover Institution director Condoleezza Rice and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang meet on the stage in Hauck Auditorium on October 18, 2024. (Eric Draper)

This Never Happened: GoodFellows Holds Live Episode Taping in Hauck Auditorium

Distinguished Visiting Fellow and historian Andrew Roberts joined the regular GoodFellows crew for a live taping before supporters on October 17. The topic of the show was historical counterfactuals. They discussed scenarios including British forces winning the pivotal Battle of Saratoga in 1777; Vladimir Lenin being assassinated before communism took root in Russia; John F. Kennedy surviving his motorcade through Dallas; and China rejecting economic reforms and instead refashioning itself as a second North Korea.

From left to right, Hoover fellows Bill Whalen, Andrew Roberts, John H. Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H.R. McMaster discuss historical counterfactuals during a live taping of GoodFellows on October 17, 2024. (Eric Draper)

The 2024 Election: Where We Are, How We Got Here, and What to Expect

Senior Fellows David Brady and Doug Rivers joined Distinguished Policy Fellow Bill Whalen to provide overseers with a snapshot of the US presidential race as it approached a thrilling conclusion. Their polling effort, the 2023‒2024 National Election Panel, has reached more than 100,000 voters on at least a semi-annual basis. They described how certain dynamics have changed since Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, where Robert F. Kennedy's supporters have gone now that he is no longer on the ballot, and the appearance of new voter groups. They also spoke about events that did not move the needle in any measurable way for either candidate, such as the July 13 attempt on Donald Trump's life or Taylor Swift's decision to endorse Kamala Harris.

Hoover fellows Bill Whalen, David Brady, and Doug Rivers speak about the state of the US presidential campaign in Hauck Auditorium on October 17, 2024. (Eric Draper)

The US Economy: Perils and Promise

Senior Fellows Valerie Ramey and Steven J. Davis spoke to attendees about the positive impact of immigration on the US economy and how to curtail the federal deficit. Davis cited research showing that net migration to the United States will reduce federal deficits by a combined $900 billion over the next ten years. He also cited a study that showed legal migrants to America are overrepresented among all patent holders. Between 1990 and 2016, lawful US arrivals accounted for 10 percent of the population, 16 percent of patent holders, 23 percent of all patents approved during that time, and 25 percent of the stock market value generated by those patents.

Ramey charted how the US deficit got so high relative to GDP. She said the United States must cut entitlements, raise taxes, and avoid reducing interest rates to near zero. Beyond that, productivity growth of the US workforce, now at 1.4‒1.5 percent, must start climbing again. Use of generative AI might prove to be the productivity booster America needs, Ramey said.

Valerie Ramey and Steven J. Davis (left to right) appear on stage in Hauck Auditorium on October 17, 2024. (Eric Draper)

Meeting the National Security Affairs Fellows: LTC Melinda Acu ña, Col. Jerome Greco, CDR Justin Matejka, and Lt. Col. Daniel Morabito

Senior Fellow Amy Zegart moderated a discussion with four of Hoover's 2024‒25 National Security Affairs Fellows: LTC Melinda Acuña of the US Army, Col. Jerome Greco of the US Marine Corps, CDR Justin Matejka of the US Coast Guard, and Lt. Col. Daniel Morabito of the US Air Force. All four officers bring unique life and career experiences to Hoover. Acuña was a logistician who commanded a battalion. Greco commanded Marine infantrymen. Matejka served on cutters in multiple oceans. And Morabito has a background in cyber warfare. They each told attendees about their worst and best days serving the country and spoke about how recent campaigns, including the fight against the Islamic State and the war in Ukraine, have changed US military tactics and future procurement needs.

LTC Melinda Acuña speaks about her experience commanding US Army logisticians in Hauck Auditorium on October 17, 2024. (Eric Draper)

China, Russia, and Iran: Will Their Axis Last?

Hoover Fellows Elizabeth Economy, Stephen Kotkin, and Abbas Milani took to the stage to discuss how their countries of focus-China, Russia, and Iran, respectively-are drawing closer together and what might break them apart. Each of them pointed out contradictions and complications in the relationship. For instance, Milani pointed out that China is detaining and restricting the daily life of more than one million Muslim Uighurs, co-religionists of the theocratically led Iran. Also, Economy said that while China is supportive of Russia's war in Ukraine, use of nuclear weapons by Russia or a decisive Ukrainian victory on the battlefield could change the dynamics of a Sino-Russian partnership. Meanwhile, Kotkin reflected on the deeply conspiratorial and fearful nature of each of the three regimes, saying that whether the United States demonstrated assertiveness and a forceful global posture or was accomodating, Chinese, Russian, and Iranian leaders would view either approach as a plot to bring them down.

(From left to right) Hoover fellows Elizabeth Economy, Abbas Milani, and Stephen Kotkin meet on stage in Hauck Auditorium on October 17, 2024. (Eric Draper)

The Decline of US Citizenship: Victor Davis Hanson

Senior Fellow Victor Davis Hanson warned attendees of the various ways he thinks the US social fabric is in decline. He spoke of decisions to allow non-US citizens to enlist in the US military, vote in school district elections, and in some cases hold state-wide office in California. He also spoke of declining rates of home ownership, marriage, and childbirth among people ages twenty to forty.

Senior Fellow Victor Davis Hanson speaks about the decline of US citizenship in Hauck Auditorium on October 18, 2024. (Eric Draper)

Gen. Jim Mattis and Adm. Jim Ellis on National Security in a Time of Challenge and Change

Building on the conclusion reached by Elizabeth Economy, Stephen Kotkin, and Abbas Milani in an earlier talk, Hoover fellows Gen. Jim Mattis and Adm. James Ellis said the growing alliance between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea will represent the greatest threat the next US president will have to confront.

The two focused on new aspects of the alliance, including China's plans to more than triple its nuclear weapons stockpile by 2030. Also, all four countries appear to be either preparing for war or engaging in pre-war activities. Everyone from the European Union to US allies and rivals in the Indo-Pacific is watching the war in Ukraine closely and considering its implications for strategic decisions about the future.

Hoover fellows Gen. Jim Mattis and Adm. Jim Ellis (left to right) speak in Hauck Auditorium on October 18, 2024. (Eric Draper)

Hoover Technology Policy Accelerator-Robotics and Space

Amy Zegart hosted another talk, this time with fellows Dan Berkenstock, who specializes in satellite development, and Allison Okamura, an engineer who works in robotics fields that serve human interests, including robot-assisted surgery, tele-operation, and haptics. They work with Hoover's Technology Policy Accelerator to support the generation of policy ideas intended to help government policy catch up with the extraordinary pace of technological development in their respective fields. Berkenstock said that commercial space technology is reaching the point where space colonization may soon be possible. For this achievement to be possible, he argues that the United States first needs to compete with China as the latter pursues ambitions to land humans on the moon in the coming years.

Meanwhile, Okamura pointed out that deeper forays into space will require robot technology to advance significantly. For instance, if an astronaut on a ship millions of miles from earth becomes seriously ill and there's no surgeon aboard, the job of keeping that astronaut alive will likely fall to a robot surgeon.

Hoover Senior Fellow Allison Okamura holds a "soft gripper" hand for a robotic arm while speaking at the Hoover Institution Fall 2024 Board of Overseers meeting on October 18, 2024. (Eric Draper)

Steven Koonin on Defending the Electrical Grid

Senior Fellow Steven Koonin spoke to attendees about the various challenges facing the US electrical grid. Some are obvious, such as the fact that eliminating fossil fuel use, electrifying transportation, and developing more data centers and server farms are driving electricity demand upward. Less obvious is the fact that electricity wires, transformers, and other infrastructure inside the United States were the target of physical attacks, including shootings and arson, up to 20,000 times between 1987 and 1996. An increasing general strain on the reliability of the grid led to the number of blackouts climbing more than 1,100 percent between 2000 and today.

Hoover Senior Fellow Steven Koonin speaks in Hauck Auditorium on October 18, 2024. (Eric Draper)

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