USGS Coastal Change Experts Warn of Heightened Risks for Florida’s West Coast as Hurricane Milton Approaches in the aftermath of Helene

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. - U.S. Geological Survey experts project that Hurricane Milton, expected to make landfall on Florida's west coast as early as Wednesday, will bring significant coastal change.

Currently, 95 percent of the sandy beaches on Florida's west coast are forecasted to become inundated-meaning continuously covered by ocean water-from Milton, according to a USGS coastal change forecast issued Monday. This is the most severe level of coastal change and can cause flooding behind sand dunes that may impact coastal communities.

USGS experts estimate Milton's waves and surge have the potential to cause both 100 percent of all ocean-facing beaches in Florida to experience erosion and overwash. Overwash occurs when water levels reach higher than the top of dunes. When a beach is overwashed, sand can be pushed and deposited inland, causing significant changes to coastal landscapes and blocking roadways. Overwash can reduce the height of protective sand dunes, alter beach profiles, and leave areas behind the dunes more vulnerable to future storms.

"The significance of the coastal change forecast for Milton's impact to the Florida west coast cannot be overstated as I believe communities are more vulnerable to this storm's impacts due to the erosion that occurred recently from Helene," said Kara Doran, a USGS supervisory physical scientist who works on the coastal change forecast. "Our initial analysis looking at imagery collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration after Helene shows most of the west coast experienced overwash or inundation and complete erosion of dunes, so those protective dunes are no longer in place for many locations."

According to the National Hurricane Center, Milton may bring life-threatening storm surge along with hurricane-force winds, and heavy rain.

This USGS coastal change forecast for Milton is a worst-case scenario that can provide vital insights to help emergency management officials make informed decisions.

USGS coastal change forecasts will continue to be updated (here: https://marine.usgs.gov/coastalchangehazardsportal/ui/alias/ptc92024) as the storm approaches land and real-time coastal change forecasts for individual locations along the coast are available in the Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer.

As the USGS continues to take all appropriate preparedness actions in response to Milton, those in the storm's projected path can visit Ready.gov for tips on creating emergency plans and putting together an emergency supply kit.

Learn more about USGS hurricane science.