New GEMs Consortium publications offer insights into emerging market credit risk

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Two new publications released today by the Global Emerging Markets Risk Database (GEMs) Consortium - a group of 26 multilateral development banks (MDBs) and development finance institutions (DFIs) - provide further insights on the level of credit risk in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) according to the investment experience of Consortium members.

The first publication covers the credit performance of lending to private and public counterparts. The average annual default rate of lending to private entities at 3.56% is broadly aligned with many non-investment grade firms in advanced economies, and the average recovery rate of 72.2% is higher than many global benchmarks.

Although the GEMs statistics reflect the unique experience of MDBs and DFIs, these results provide valuable information on the investment risk in EMDEs, an area characterized by a lack of available credit risk data.

The second publication provides default rates and - for the first time - recovery rates for sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending based on an expanded range of 40 years of data. Results shows an average annual default rate of 1.06% and an average recovery rate of 94.9% and complement the GEMs statistics on private and public counterparts to provide a comprehensive view on EMDEs credit risks.

These increasingly granular statistical publications by the GEMs Consortium address the call by the G20 and other stakeholders to provide investors greater insights into credit risks in emerging markets, thereby allowing them to better guide their asset allocations.

GEMs was established in 2009 as a bilateral initiative between the European Investment Bank and the International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group). Since then, the GEMs Consortium has grown to include 26 members: African Development Bank (AfDB), Agence Française de Développement (AFD), Asian Development Bank (ADB), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), Black Sea Trade and Development Bank (BSTDB), Banque Ouest Africaine de Développement (BOAD), British International Investment (BII), Council of Europe Development Bank (CEB), Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI), European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), European Investment Bank Group (EIB), GuarantCo, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Inter-American Investment Corporation (IDB Invest), International Finance Corporation (IFC), International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW), Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), Netherlands Development Finance Company (FMO), U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), New Development Bank (NDB), Proparco, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP), and Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA).