Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
11/25/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 11/25/2024 09:47
Texas Manufactoring Outlook Survey
November 25, 2024
Texas manufacturing activity holds steady in November, outlooks improve
What's new this month
For this month's survey, Texas business executives were asked supplemental questions on expected demand and operating margins. Results for these questions from the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey, Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey and Texas Retail Outlook Survey have been released together. Read the special questions results.
Texas factory activity was flat in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, slipped to a near-zero reading after rising to 14.6 last month.
Other measures of manufacturing activity suggested contraction this month. The new orders index pushed further negative to -11.9, indicating continued declines in demand. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes slipped back into negative territory, coming in at -4.8 and -5.9, respectively.
Perceptions of broader business conditions were mixed in November. The general business activity index held steady at -2.7, while the company outlook index moved up nine points to 5.8, its first positive reading since early 2022. The outlook uncertainty index fell 11 points to 5.9.
Labor market measures suggested increased employment and steady workweeks this month. The employment index shot up 10 points to 4.9. Nineteen percent of firms noted net hiring, while 14 percent noted net layoffs. The hours worked index moved up to zero, a reading indicative of no change in workweek length from October.
Moderate upward pressure on prices and wages was seen in November, with all indexes near their historical averages. The raw materials prices index moved up 12 points to 28.5, and the finished goods prices index was largely unchanged at 8.8. The wages and benefits index slipped five points to 18.6.
Expectations are for increased manufacturing activity six months from now. The future production index inched up to 44.0, a three-year high. Similarly, the future general business activity index edged up to a three-year high of 31.2. Other indexes of future manufacturing activity showed mixed movements this month but remained elevated.
Next release: Monday, December 30
Data were collected Nov. 12-20, and 86 of the 124 Texas manufacturers surveyed submitted a response. The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of the state's factory activity. Firms are asked whether output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month.
Survey responses are used to calculate an index for each indicator. Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When the share of firms reporting an increase exceeds the share reporting a decrease, the index will be greater than zero, suggesting the indicator has increased over the prior month. If the share of firms reporting a decrease exceeds the share reporting an increase, the index will be below zero, suggesting the indicator has decreased over the prior month. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase is equal to the number of firms reporting a decrease. Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.