Fact of the Week: Tensions Have Led to a 3.7 Percent Decline in the Probability of Chinese Students Enrolling in a US PhD Program

Source: Robert Flynn et al., "Building a Wall Around Science: The Effect of U.S.-China Tensions on International Scientific Research," (working paper, National Bureau of Economic Research. Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2024).

Commentary: The United States and China have faced increasing geopolitical tensions since 2015, resulting in trade barriers and growing anti-China sentiment from U.S. politicians and the public. Before this tension, the United States and China were historically well connected in STEM fields, with Chinese students making up about 18 percent of science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) graduates in the United States between 2008 and 2019. However, since 2015, the number of Chinese students enrolling in U.S. PhD programs has decreased by about 3.7 percent, while the probability a Chinese student will enroll in a PhD program in another English-speaking country, such as the UK, Australia, or Canada, has increased by 2.1 percent. Researchers also found that in that same period, Chinese citations of U.S. publications declined by 6.5 percent.