Poll Shows Americans’ Trust in Government Holds Steady Amid Turmoil

Mark Penn, founder, chair and CEO of marketing network Stagwell, told a gathering of the George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management, which is housed in the College of Professional Studies (CPS), that despite a broad sense the United States is "living in revolutionary times and on the verge of civil wars," Americans' feelings about the government hasn't changed much in the past year.

"Surprisingly there is really not a lot of change," Penn said. "They like the military a lot. They like the police. They like most institutions. They are clearly unhappy at what is going on with immigration.

"What happened is last year people were really upset about the economy. They were upset about things in general, and they tended to rate a lot of the institutions somewhat lower than they had in the previous years. This year, they changed not that much. [Americans] kind of went back to the standard low," said Penn, who is also the founder of the Society of Presidential Pollsters, now called the Mark Penn Presidential Pollsters.

Penn was speaking at GSPM's annual reception where experts and political analysts provide critical insights into where the Americans stand on critical issues, including elections and government performance. The event, titled "Do Americans Still Have Confidence in Their Government," was held Wednesday evening at the Hall of States in the shadow of the U.S. Capitol.

In opening remarks, CPS Dean Liesl Riddle said the Mark Penn Pollster event has become a cornerstone in GW's academic calendar bringing together the brightest minds in political analysis.

"We celebrate this event in the very heart of democracy where students from our Graduate School of Political Management learn, work and engage with the complex dynamics that shape our country," Riddle said.

Penn, in a conversation with Chris Arterton, professor emeritus of political management and founding dean of GSPM, presented information about the annual survey from the GW Mark Penn Presidential Pollsters and Harris X, which examined the public's views of how President Joe Biden, Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court are handling their jobs. (Read the full poll results.)

GW President Ellen M. Granberg introduced Penn and Arterton, saying that "with such a consequential election just weeks away tonight could not be more timely or important."

"Our faculty and subject matter experts produce scholarship and the expert commentary that drives our debates and discussions," Granberg said. "This evening's event underscores the importance of all those contributions and highlights our university's critical role in making leaders of tomorrow."

President Granberg (l), Mark Penn and CPS Dean Riddle.

A breakdown of the poll numbers showed that 65% of respondents said the country was on the wrong track, and 64% of respondents said the same about the economy. However, the same dissatisfaction was not expressed for the three major branches of government. Though not stellar, 48% of respondents said they had confidence that the presidency is working, an increase of 7 percentage points over last year. For Congress, 39% of respondents said the institution is working, also an increase of 7 percentage points. For the Supreme Court, 53% said they had confidence in the court, about the same as last year.

"2023. That really was the year when inflation was raging," Penn said, "and there was a lot more public anger than you're seeing now. You see all this heated rhetoric about democracy being over. There's really no sense of that in the polls."

When the pollsters asked whether the federal government should have more power or less, there was little support for more power. The number dropped 7 percentage points from last year from 21% to 14%.

"The long-term trend of the federal government having too much power is gaining traction," Penn said. "No one wants fewer checks and balances. They don't want one party to come in and put their program through without the lens of bipartisanship."

On certain key issues that have been a source of tension in recent years, a majority of voters supported strengthening the First Amendment's provision for freedom of speech and the press, but on the right of law-abiding citizens to own guns, the picture was less clear and divided along party lines.

Democrats would like to see more constraints on disinformation. Though Republicans characterize media as being unfair, they would rather the federal government keep hands off.

"Americans are in a bit of a quandary about how to apply the First Amendment to integrate technology and government and deal with misinformation," Penn said.

During a Q & A session, Arterton pointed out that despite the public's seeming comfortability with government, there was constant friction among institutions which the U.S. Supreme Court has resolved by taking authority over policy and regulations, for example, from the executive branch and pushing it back to Congress.

Penn responded that "the federal bureaucracy was due for a reset," and that people want bipartisan solutions where Congress passes legislation with "a significant majority of support," which hasn't happened. Instead, critical issues such as immigration reform are being dealt with by administrative orders from the executive branch.

In closing, Todd Belt, GSPM program director, said, "It was great to hear about the respect people have for institutions of government. Polling gets a bad rap because it's not as predictive as we want, but it's important to know what people are thinking. What people think about their government really does matter because we are a democracy."

GW established the Society of Presidential Pollsters in 2010. It is a membership organization for the select group of people who have served as public opinion advisers to the U.S. presidents.

HarrisX, on behalf of the Society of Presidential Pollsters, conducted the survey online from Sept. 14-16 among 1,505 randomly selected registered voters. The margin for error was +/- 2.5%.