Less Beef Exports, More Beef Imports

The decline in beef exports which began last year has continued into this year. For the first five months of the year, U.S. beef exports, 1.25 billion pounds, trail last year's exports over the same period by over 64 million pounds. Last year beef exports fell 14% compared to 2022. Figure 1 shows year-to-date beef exports to top markets from January-May of this year compared to last year. Of the top six markets, only exports to Mexico are larger, up 21%. Exports to the other top importing countries are off anywhere from 4-14%. Slowing U.S. beef production, higher prices, and a strong dollar have contributed to the declining export volume. The one positive is exports to the rest of the world (ROW) are up 2% this year. This includes exports to Cuba, Philippines, United Arab Emirates, Guatemala, Qatar, Kuwait, Panama, Dominican Republic, Singapore, and Cayman Islands. Collectively, these countries imported 191 million pounds of U.S. beef through May.

FIGURE 1. U.S. BEEF EXPORTS (MILLION POUNDS), JANUARY-MAY 2023 & 2024

Source: USDA Economic Research Service

FIGURE 2. U.S. BEEF IMPORTS (MILLION POUNDS), JANUARY-MAY 2023 & 2024

Source: USDA Economic Research Service

On the other side of the ledger, U.S. imports of beef totaled 1.9 billion pounds through May, up 19 percent compared to last year. Canada, 436 million pounds, Australia, 371 million pounds, and Brazil, 319 million pounds, were the top suppliers. Americans' love affair with hamburger is a large reason for the growing beef imports. To produce ground beef, lean trimmings from cow slaughter are mixed with fat trimmings from steer and heifer slaughter. Fewer cows being slaughtered this year has decreased domestic lean trimmings. At the same time, increased fat trimmings mean more lean trimmings are needed to mix. Consequently, the demand for imported lean beef trimmings has increased.

The USDA projects U.S. beef imports will finish the year at 4.1 billion pounds. Exports are projected at 2.91 billion pounds. Thus, a trade deficit in beef of over 1 billion pounds is expected, the largest since 2006 and 2007. Falling exports typically are not good news for the state's beef sector. Nebraska is the nation's top beef exporter and beef is consistently one of the state's top three exports. Yet despite declining exports, prices for feeders and fed cattle have risen to record high this year. Fewer cattle and relatively steady domestic demand have offset the export decline.