Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast softens

News Releases

July 22, 2024

DALLAS-The Texas Employment Forecast released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates jobs will increase 1.9 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.4 to 2.4percent.

This is a decrease from the previous month's forecast of 2.4 percent for 2024.   

The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices,and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes. 

Texas lost roughly 1,900 jobs in June on net, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers.

The state added 36,700 jobs in May, which was revised upward. 

"Texas employment marginally declined in June due to job losses in the service sector as the state lost around 1,900 jobs. This offset the strong job gains in the goods-producing sector, which were led by a significant increase in construction jobs," said Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist. "Texas employment growth has decelerated to 2.3 percent year to date as the labor market shows signs of cooling. Furthermore, the outlook for growth in the second half of the year dropped 0.8 percentage points compared with the first half. Slower employment growth, combined with decreases in the Texas and U.S. leading indexes lowered the forecast."

Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:   

• Theforecast suggests 266,100 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2024 will be 14.3 million. 
• Texas employment shrank an annualized 0.2 percent month over month in June, while May growth was revised upward to 3.2 percent.  

The unemployment rate increased in nearly every major metro area, includingBrownsville-Harlingen, Dallas-Plano-Irving, El Paso, Fort Worth-Arlington, Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Laredo andSan Antonio-New Braunfels,according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.  

The rate remained unchanged in Austin-Round Rock.

The Texas statewide unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.0 percent in June.  
Additional information about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates, may be found onDallasFed.org. 

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Media contact:
Jon Prior
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: 214-922-6857
Email: [email protected]

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