2024 Election Outlook for Independent Grocers: Webinar Key Takeaways

By Jim Dudlicek / NGA Managing Editor and Content Strategist

The business community is anxiously watching this election year unfold, and independent grocers are no exception.

The rollercoaster race for the White House has transformed from a 2020 rematch to a showdown between former President Trump and current VP Kamala Harris, who could become the nation's first female president. Meanwhile, control of Congress is on the line, with a razor-thin GOP House majority and a potential Senate flip. The outcome will shape the direction of economic and regulatory policy for the next four years.

NGA's Government Relations team hosted a recent webinar that looked at how independent grocers' priorities - including antitrust enforcement, credit card reform and nutrition policy - could be affected by the potential shift in power.

Leading the discussion were Neal Patel, founder of government relations consultancy Patel Partners; Stephanie Johnson, NGA's VP of government relations; and Chris Jones, NGA's chief government relations officer and senior vice president.

Here are some key takeaways from the discussion:

What are voters' election priorities? Economy/jobs, prices/inflation, immigration and taxes/government spending.

Key races to watch? Democrats hold a close majority in the Senate, with 51 seats (including four independents who caucus with the Dems) versus 49 held by Republicans. With West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin stepping down and his seat expected to go to the GOP, Democrats need to hold all other seats to maintain control, Patel explained. The most likely blue seat to flip red? Montana Sen. Jon Tester, with Senate seats in Ohio and Pennsylvania also in play. In the House, Republicans hold a slim majority and Democrats stand a good chance to take control, with the House becoming more competitive since President Joe Biden dropped out. Keep an eye on open seats and toss-ups in Michigan, Ohio and other states.

What would a GOP sweep mean? Republicans winning the White House as well as both houses of Congress would likely mean a rollback of the Biden regulatory agenda and the Inflation Reduction Act; the extension of 2017 tax provisions, but with flash points including the SALT cap (state and local tax deduction), deficit and competing demands in reconciliation; and pressure to limit filibustering on priority items like immigration policy.

What about a congressional switcheroo? If Dems hold the White House but regain a majority in the House of Representatives and the GOP takes the Senate, expect continued Congressional gridlock, with the debt limit and expiration of 2017 tax bill as flash points; policy principally through regulations, which would be more aggressive; and more difficulty for the president to get new nominees confirmed.

With a GOP White House and Senate, and a Dem House, expect continued Congressional gridlock with the above flash points, and policy mainly through regulations and appointments (executive branch and judicial).

Antitrust is in play. Robinson-Patman Act enforcement and modernization has been caught up in election year food politics. RPA foes are spending money and campaigning to tie RPA to inflation. NGA has fired back through its Main Street coalition. J.D. Vance has been a supporter of antitrust initiatives and creates opportunity no matter what happens in November. Timing is up in the air for FTC enforcement of RPA. Introduction of any antitrust legislation would likely come after the election.

What's next? With just a few weeks left in session before shifting back to full campaign mode, lawmakers will likely punt further decisions until December, by which time the election results will determine how budget negotiations will unfold, Patel said. Meanwhile, NGA will continue to push back on candidates' price-gouging accusations, following media appearances placing blame for high grocery prices on inflation and lack of antitrust enforcement. Credit-card reform is generating a lot of attention and good debate though lawmakers are arguing the issue on process vs. merits. NGA has successfully beaten back attempts to restrict SNAP Choice, but Democrats taking the House remains the best scenario for preservation of the nutrition incentive program important to independent grocers in underserved communities.

For more exclusive insights, view a recording of the complete webinar at https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/recording/2665351867247580590.

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