PinnacleOne ExecBrief | China’s Great Power Means Great Responsibility

Last week, we considered the implications of cyber insurance policies and government warnings about the future of armed conflict.

This week, we cover attacks on Chinese workers in Pakistan and what they mean for China's ambitious global development plans. As China's influence grows, so too does blowback.

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PinnacleOne ExecBrief | State and Local Election Security Advisory

With Great Power Comes Great Responsibility

Late Sunday night, an explosion outside of Pakistan's largest airport killed two Chinese nationals and injured others. The casualties were some of the thousands of Chinese workers implementing Beijing's multibillion dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Pakistan. A separatist group, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), has claimed responsibility for the attack, underscoring China's challenge in maintaining goodwill as its global reach grows.

Unintended Consequences

China's rise as a great power has driven its efforts to expand its global reach through economic development projects. The PRC has positioned its Belt and Road Initiative as an alternative to Western institutions like the IMF and World Bank, offering development assistance without Western political conditions. Partnering with these legacy U.S.-dominated institutions meant having to put up with liberal hectoring as well as induced or coerced alignment with Western political and corporate prerogatives. Partnering with China, conversely, means trade and investment with no such strings attached, and alignment of (mostly crony elite) interest that keeps autocratic regimes in power and key resources flowing back to China.

Pakistan has been the flagship recipient of BRI funding, buoyed by China's need for security along its south-west border and Pakistan's economic development interests. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a 15 year, $62 billion dollar investment first announced in 2015. China has touted its foreign direct investment and loans as an opportunity to fix Pakistan's energy shortages and grow the country's economy, though the deal has been opaque. The U.S. State Department argues that the investment benefits Chinese companies while raising Pakistan's debt burden.

Paving The Digital Silk Road

Alongside physical infrastructure projects, China has been actively pursuing its Digital Silk Road initiative as part of the broader BRI. This digital component includes:

1. Fiber optic networks- China is investing heavily in transnational and intercontinental fiber optic cables, aiming to create a China-centric digital infrastructure.
2. 5G networks- Chinese companies like Huawei and ZTE are at the forefront of 5G technology deployment in BRI countries.
3. Smart cities- China is exporting its smart city technologies, including surveillance systems and data centers, to BRI partner nations.
4. E-commerce platforms- Chinese tech giants are expanding their digital services and e-commerce platforms across BRI countries.

While apparently benign, these digital initiatives have a sharper cybersecurity edge:

• Data sovereignty- As Chinese companies build and manage critical digital infrastructure, questions arise about who controls the data flowing through these networks.
• Cyber espionage- There are fears that China could use its digital infrastructure for intelligence gathering and economic espionage.
• Vulnerability in global supply chains- The pervasive use of Chinese hardware and software in BRI countries could create systemic vulnerabilities in global digital supply chains.

Selling Digital Authoritarianism

China's "Authoritarianism-as-a-service" technical stack and embedded model of digital governance is finding willing subscribers across the world. This includes the export of advanced surveillance technologies to BRI countries and the promotion of "cyber sovereignty", which emphasizes state control over the internet. Some BRI partner nations have adopted Chinese-style internet filtering and censorship systems. Additionally, there are concerns about the potential export of China's social credit system to other countries, possibly implemented as part of smart city technologies. The result is pliable regimes more able to suppress dissent and commit to long-term trade and political partnerships with China.

Reaping What Xi Sows

The U.S. has long faced the unintended consequences that come from muddled involvement in the complex politics of South Asia. The Taliban's rise was only made possible due to U.S. support during the Cold War where efforts to weaken the Soviets in the short term enabled the Taliban's rise in the long term. China, among others, has criticized the US's strong arming of relationships and development guidelines in South Asia.

Now, China finds itself learning the same lessons the hard way. The BLA is just one of multiple terrorist organizations who have attacked Chinese workers in Pakistan. The BLA has long been fighting for greater autonomy and opposing foreign intervention in the region. For them, Chinese investment represents exploitation and an infringement on their land and resources, making Chinese workers a prime target. Just this March, the BLA attacked a Chinese port in Pakistan and an air base in Balochistan. China is learning that economic involvement in volatile regions comes with political and security burdens they may not be prepared to shoulder.

The Future of China's Global Power

As China expands its global footprint, it will continue to face the same criticisms and challenges that have long confronted the United States. Non-state actors, separatist movements, and smaller nations will test China's ability to maintain stability in regions that are politically complex and hostile to foreign influence.

While China has long touted its politically neutral economic development approach, the realities on the ground may force Beijing to reassess its strategy. Economic development projects can fuel resentment, especially when local populations feel exploited or ignored in favor of foreign interests. As attacks like the one in Pakistan demonstrate, China's rising global power comes with responsibilities - and consequences.

The U.S. has learned these lessons over decades of global involvement, facing the backlash of its own foreign policies in regions like South Asia and the Middle East. Now, China must navigate a similar path, where its ambitions for economic dominance are increasingly intertwined with the politics and conflicts of the regions it seeks to influence.

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