The climate policy at stake in this election: The tax code

Climate policy will look significantly different depending on whether we have a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump presidency - and the tax code may play an outsize role, says Kimberly Clausing, a UCLA law professor. Clausing, who previously served as a top tax official at the U.S. Treasury Department for the Biden administration, notes that "climate advocates ignore tax policy at their peril." Says Clausing:

• "Perhaps the Biden administration's biggest legislative achievement was the Inflation Reduction Act, which, despite its name, is to a large extent a climate bill. The IRA included a host of tax credits that are directed at clean energy. If a second Trump administration comes to town, they will likely seek to repeal the clean energy tax credits, and they are likely to roll back important regulations affecting the power sector and the auto sector."

• "Some people argue that the job creation in red states by these clean energy investments makes them immune to repeal. That ignores the pressure on Republicans to undo what the Democrats have done. We saw this with the Affordable Care Act, which had the potential to benefit many low-income people in red states, and yet red-state governments were deeply reluctant to embrace these policies, even if they helped their constituents."

• "When you look at the emissions trajectories of a Republican trifecta in the House, Senate and White House compared to a Democratic trifecta, the difference in emissions impacts are massive when you compare the status quo with the repeal of both the tax credits and the regulatory steps." (A difference of hundreds to thousands of metric tons of CO2 by 2040, she explains in this brief. The full version is here.)

• "A lot of climate policy is done through the tax code, so climate advocates ignore taxes at their peril. In short, Senate rules make it far easier to pass legislation with a budgetary impact; you basically need 50 senators rather than 60. We're not going to have 60 Democratic senators for a while. So policies need to have a budgetary impact, which means that climate policy will often take the form of taxing or spending, rather than bills that mandate."

Media are encouraged to quote from Clausing's comments, or reach out to request an interview from her or UCLA's other climate experts. Clausing studies carbon pricing policies, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the broader intersection of climate change, tax policy and trade policy. She also studies tax policy issues more broadly, with a focus international taxation issues.

Clausing is the Eric M. Zolt Professor of Tax Law and Policy at the UCLA School of Law and served as deputy assistant secretary for tax analysis in the Treasury Department. Media can reach out to get a copy of this week's UCLA Election 360 email for Clausing's comments on the Harris and Trump campaigns' proposed tax, tariff and other economic policies.

For additional climate context related to extreme heat and wildfires, especially in Western North America, please join a live Q&A on Friday with UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain at 2 p.m. PT/5 p.m. ET. Swain will discuss the abnormal rain in the northwest, and the updated wildfire outlook for fall.