USGS experts forecast Francine to result in coastal change in Texas and Louisiana

The storm, upgraded from a tropical storm to a hurricane, is set to make landfall over central Louisiana Wednesday. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for portions of the Upper Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi coastlines where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect, according to the National Hurricane Center.

USGS experts estimate Francine's waves and surge have the potential to cause 76% of the dunes and beaches from High Island, Texas to Louisiana's border with Mississippi to experience some level of erosion.

Updates to this forecast are ongoing.

This USGS coastal change forecast for Francine is a worst case scenario that can provide vital insights to help emergency management officials make informed decisions.

Approximately 54% of dunes in this coastal area could be overwashed. This more severe level of coastal change occurs when water levels reach higher than the top of dunes. When a beach is overwashed, sand can be pushed and deposited inland, causing significant changes to coastal landscapes and blocking roadways. Overwash can reduce the height of protective sand dunes, alter beach profiles and leave areas behind the dunes more vulnerable to future storms.

The most severe level of coastal change is when dunes are inundated - meaning continuously covered by ocean water. This storm effect can cause flooding behind dunes that may impact coastal communities. Currently, 17% of the coastal areas from High Island to throughout coastal Louisiana are forecasted to become inundated from Francine.

USGS coastal change forecasts will continue to be updated (here: https://marine.usgs.gov/coastalchangehazardsportal/ui/alias/francine2024) as the storm approaches land and real-time coastal change forecasts for individual locations along the coast are available in the Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer.

As the USGS continues to take all appropriate preparedness actions in response to Francine, those in the storm's projected path can visit Ready.gov for tips on creating emergency plans and putting together an emergency supply kit.

Learn more about USGS hurricane science.