The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Increased in October

Index Nearly Unchanged in October Amid Mixed Data

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The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) ticked up to 107.66 in October, from a downwardly revised 107.58 in September. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.

"The ETI was nearly unchanged in October, holding steady at roughly 2018-19 levels, where it has persisted throughout the summer months," said Mitchell Barnes, Economist at the Conference Board. "The labor market continues to cool from its rapid post-pandemic pace, but the ETI suggests that this trend may be leveling out. This comes at a time when we expect business uncertainty to begin lifting, as the Federal Reserve's rate cuts start taking hold and uncertainty around the US election subsides."

Economic data releases in October underscored the resilience of the US economy, including in production, incomes, and spending. Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (an ETI component) improved in October and were up nearly 1.5% over the last three months compared to Q1 2024. Measures of output and productivity also remained strong year-over-year, including Industrial Production (an ETI component).

"Although October's jobs report provided mixed results due to hurricane and strike impacts, several labor market indicators within the ETI improved," added Barnes. "We expect some of October's data blips to reverse in subsequent months, and generally see an economy growing at a healthy pace heading into 2025 as inflation and wage pressures continue to moderate."

Among these labor market components, the share of involuntary part-time workers ticked down in October, while the share of respondents who report 'jobs are hard to get'-from the Consumer Confidence Survey®-fell from 18.6 to 16.8, marking the largest decrease since January 2024. The share of firms reporting 'jobs not able to fill right now' has also improved relative to earlier in the year. Initial claims for unemployment insurance saw a small rise in October that can largely be attributed to hurricane effects in select states.

October's increase in the Employment Trends Index was driven by positive contributions from five of its eight components: Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get", Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Job Openings, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales and Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading indicators of employment, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index ™, January 2000 to Present

The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)*
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**

*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months

*** Note that per the latest BEA Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales release, sales data from the retail sector was revised from January 2019 forward causing revisions to the ETI in line with the revised changes over the same period.

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report.

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ 2024 Publication Schedule

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ and turning points, November 1973 to Present

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