What Do ICC Arrest Warrants Mean for Israel and the War in Gaza

On November 21, 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas military officials. Over a year has passed since the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas that began a war that has seen mass casualties and catastrophic consequences.

The individuals have been accused of crimes against humanity, and if arrested, will stand trial in The Hague.

Why did the ICC issue these arrest warrants? How does the ICC serve the warrants? What impact will this have on Israel and its allies? We asked SIS professor Boaz Atzili to explain the reasoning behind the ICC's actions, and the possible impact it could have on Israel and the war itself.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, alongside Israel's former Defense Minister, and Hamas' current military leader. Why were these warrants issued? Originally these arrest warrants included the heads of Hamas's political branch Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh as well, but both have been killed by Israel since (as is the case, though not confirmed, with Mohammed Deif, Hamas's military leader). The warrants were issued for war crimes and crimes against humanity allegedly committed on October 7^th, 2023 (by Hamas) and since (by Israeli leaders). The allegations themselves remain secret to avoid tipping potential witnesses, but it is clear that these are about serious, systematic, and deliberate targeting of civilian populations. There are war crimes in almost every war, but the ICC only issues these kinds of arrest warrants against heads of state when the war crimes are systematic and of large scale. The ICC also only issues these kinds of arrest warrants when the court is convinced that the country in question is unable or unwilling to persecute the allegation itself. It is therefore a serious condemnation of the Israeli judicial system, which under years of deliberate targeting by Netanyahu's government has been considerably weakened. Israel is not a member of the ICC, so how would these warrants be served? Israel will not arrest Netanyahu and Gallant, but they could be arrested if they are visiting any of the 124 countries signatories of the Rome Statute, which created the ICC. In principle, any country that has signed the statute is obliged to carry out the arrests on its soil. In the past, there were cases where countries did not fulfill that obligation (such as when the Sudanese leader under arrest warrant visited South Africa and was not arrested). Many signatory states, though, already declared that they will execute the arrests if Netanyahu or Gallant were on their soil, including France, the Netherlands, Jordan, South Africa, and more. Other states, like Canada and Britain, released more vague statements about the need to respect international law or the ruling of the ICC. The US is not a signatory country, and neither are Russia or China. What kind of strain does this put on Israel's relationship with its allies? Israel is already under considerable strain with its allies over the continued devastating war in Gaza. This war, which initially was perceived by most of Israel's allies as a war forced on Israel by the atrocious Hamas attack of October 7^th, 2023, is increasingly perceived as a no longer justified war that devastates the civilian population in Gaza and is continuing to sustain Netanyahu's ruling coalition (a view that is shared by now by most Israelis and the country's security apparatus, including Gallant himself-whom Netanyahu fired last month for this reason). Netanyahu's travels will be significantly restricted, and he will be joining a notorious list of former and current heads of state that are wanted for war crimes, including Vladimir Putin, Omar Al-Bashir of Sudan, and the late Slobodan Milosevic. Even countries that opposed the arrest warrants might be more reluctant to host a fugitive of international law. However, President-elect Trump has promised to retaliate against the ICC. What kind of an effect might these warrants have on both the Israeli government, and the war itself? No immediate effects, but the ICC arrest warrants add to the barrage of criminal and civil lawsuits that Netanyahu and his close circle are facing in Israel. While the investigations in Israel are exactly the reason why he does not want to reach an agreement to end the war and release the Israeli hostages (the war serves as an excuse to delay those trials), the international one might create an incentive to end the war in order to diffuse the allegations. In general, Netanyahu is a famously calculated politician, and the increased pressure might lead him eventually to make mistakes that will bring about his fall from power, likely to result in a speedy agreement to end the Gaza war.

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